What's next for Bush-Kerry race

But two months can be nearly a lifetime in a political race, and the Bush political dynasty is known for its hardball campaign tactics, as former Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis found out when he ran against George H. W. Bush in 1988.

"As the last couple of weeks show," says Dr. Lunch, "the tactics that the senior Bush used against Dukakis may work again if Kerry does not respond persuasively."

This week's GOP convention included efforts - most notably by Laura Bush - to soften the image of the incumbent, who has become perhaps the most polarizing figure in American politics since Richard Nixon.

In his acceptance speech, the president stressed hopefulness and his "compassionate conservative philosophy." Bush mentioned his Democratic opponent only occasionally, and then only once by name.

But to many who watched, the convention is more likely to be remembered for the rocket-propelled rhetorical grenades aimed directly at John Kerry by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, dissident Democratic Sen. Zell Miller, and Vice President Dick Cheney.

Even before the last balloon had popped at the GOP convention in New York, Kerry began hitting back with a so-far unusual toughness - and in a very personal way.

"We all saw the anger and distortion of the Republican Convention," Kerry said at a midnight rally in Springfield, Ohio. "For the past week, they attacked my patriotism and my fitness to serve as commander in chief. Well, here's my answer. I will not have my commitment to defend this country questioned by those who refused to serve when they could have and who misled the nation into Iraq."

"The vice president called me unfit for office," he went on. "I guess I'll leave it up to the voters whether five deferments makes someone more qualified than two tours of duty" in Vietnam.

"Let me tell you what I think makes someone unfit for duty," Kerry said. "Misleading our nation into war in Iraq makes you unfit to lead this nation. Doing nothing while this nation loses millions of jobs makes you unfit to lead our country. Letting 45 million Americans go without healthcare makes you unfit to lead this nation. Letting the Saudi royal family control the price of oil for Americans makes you unfit to lead this nation. Handing out billions of contracts to Halliburton without bid while you're still on their payroll makes you unfit. That's the record of George Bush and Dick Cheney."

Though the race could hardly be statistically closer, a new poll by Zogby International indicates a likely convention "bounce" for the Republican ticket. The poll of likely voters taken during the GOP gathering in New York gives Bush-Cheney a two-point lead over Kerry-Edwards (46-44).

"The President has had a very good convention following a good week where he also dominated the news with his own message: leadership, strength, decisiveness," says pollster John Zogby. "The President has widened his lead in the Red States and tightened things up considerably in the Blue States. For the first time in months he now leads among Independents and Catholics."

Still, the Bush-Cheney campaign has its work cut out for it.

Polls still show a slight majority of Americans (50-55 percent) believe the country is "on the wrong track," five-to-ten percentage points more than would vote for Bush at this point. Jimmy Carter faced a similar predicament in 1980, as did George H.W. Bush in 1992. For this reason, analysts say, Republicans will continue their effort to make this race a referendum on Kerry rather than on Bush.

"He's in better shape than his dad was 12 years ago," says Lunch. "But he's still in trouble."

Page: 1 | 2