What's next for Bush-Kerry race

Editor's note: This story was originally posted September 3, 2004

The balloons have fallen. The funny hats put away. The delegates are heading home.

Now that both party conventions are over and their candidates officially endorsed, the campaign for the presidency enters its most hard-fought and critical phase. And it seems certain to get more pointed and more personal as election day approaches.

President Bush's job is on the line. So are John Kerry's reputation and his chance at the White House.

In his nomination acceptance speech Thursday night, Mr. Bush reviewed his legislative accomplishments, explained his rationale for going to war in Afghanistan and Iraq, and reminded Americans of the basis for his political philosophy.

"I believe the most solemn duty of the American president is to protect the American people," the president said. "If America shows uncertainty and weakness in this decade, the world will drift toward tragedy. This will not happen on my watch. I am running for president with a clear and positive plan to build a safer world and a more hopeful America. I am running with a compassionate conservative philosophy: that government should help people improve their lives, not try to run their lives. I believe this nation wants steady, consistent, principled leadership - and that is why, with your help, we will win this election."

There were no surprises in the speech, no dramatic announcements of new programs or initiatives. But the address was generally well-reviewed by political observers.

"Bush was confident and presidential," says John Allen Williams, professor of political science at Loyola University Chicago. "I think he moved his ball ahead quite a ways."

"The Republicans clearly have the momentum now, and they will try to maintain it with attacks on Sen. Kerry's voting record on defense issues," says Dr. Williams. "Kerry would surely rather talk about economic, environmental, and health[care] issues."

Other experts agree.

"This race is far from over," political analyst Charlie Cook writes in National Journal this week. "But there is no doubt that Kerry has suffered a loss of momentum."

If the Democratic National Convention, and especially John Kerry's appearance surrounded by his combat "band of brothers," looked back at the Vietnam War, the Republican event focused on the ongoing war on terrorism in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Speaking on Bush's behalf was retired Army General Tommy Franks, who led coalition troops in both countries. Bush, he said, "is the leader we can count on to make the tough decisions."

"Because we acted to defend our country, the murderous regimes of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban are history, more than 50 million people have been liberated, and democracy is coming to the broader Middle East," Bush said. "Free governments in the Middle East will fight terrorists instead of harboring them, and that helps us keep the peace."

The next major step between now and voting day will be the presidential debates, which are yet to be negotiated and scheduled.

"Given the underlying attitudes among voters, I think that the debates will be very important this year," says William Lunch, who chairs the political science department at Oregon State University. "If Kerry comes across well, or if Bush is perceived to stumble in the debates, then Bush will be in serious trouble because there is fairly widespread dissatisfaction with him."

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