China faces future as land of boys

Blame for easy choiceACCESS TO? of "selective abortion" is being ascribed to loose hospital management and bribes. Zhang Weiqing, director of China's state family planning and population commission, criticized the practice of clandestine ultrasound tests. "They'll do whatever you ask, for money," Mr. Zhang said on national TV in August, speaking of some medical staff.

Given China's long history, the new gender imbalance is something recent. Chinese census figures show that in the 1950s and 1960s, boy-girl birth ratios were relatively stable and normal. Yet by 1982, boy births had climbed to 108, and they have continued to rise abnormally ever since: They hit 112 to 100 in 1990, and then rose to 116 boys per 100 girls, in 1995.

The new Chinese target for the year 2010 is to reduce the imbalance to 107 to 100.

The one-child policy is often overlooked in Chinese rural areas where tradition is strong, and so is the desire for sons who can do heavy labor.

Studies infer that the practice of selective abortions among families having second and third children run far higher. For second children the ratios are roughly 151 to 100, and about 159 to 100 for a third child.

Over the past year, China has experimented with a program in rural areas of 13 provinces that rewards aging parents who participate loyally in the "one child" policy or who have no son. Parents over age 60 who have no son, or just one child, or two daughters, receive 1,200 yuan, or $150, a year. By next year, state media report, the program will be adopted nationwide, though sources for the huge funding involved have not been identified.

At least one new Western scholarly analysis suggests that a dramatic gender imbalance could have negative consequences for China's social health. "Bare Branches," a study by Valerie Hudson of Brigham Young University and Andrea den Boer of the University of Kent, argues that vast differences in gender balances could bring a tinderbox of social tension and even violent disruptions that would have political implications.

It is true, sources say, that in many places outside urban areas in China, not having a wife is a source to men of personal shame and anger. The authors suggest that vast numbers of men without strong family ties are potential sources of gang activity and violent crime.

A number of Chinese scholars have pooh-poohed the idea of social instability as a result of a potential "bachelor nation." The question of too many bachelors in China got official sanction on Internet sites this summer and was discussed. One participant felt the scarcity of women would give them far more power in Chinese society.

"This is a harbinger of a matriarchal era," said the commentator, writing into the popular Tianya Club, an online message board.

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