What the GOP is determined to prove

And so it was Monday night, as Guiliani criticized Kerry for what Guiliani said was Kerry's poor record in the fight against terrorism.

"President Bush will make certain that we are combating terrorism at the source, beyond our shores, so we can reduce the risk of having to confront it in the streets of New York," he said. "John Kerry's record of inconsistent positions on combating terrorism gives us no confidence he'll pursue such a determined course."

In the weeks since the Democratic National Convention in Boston, the Kerry-Edwards campaign seems to have stuttered and stumbled. There was little post-convention bounce in the polls for the Democrats - perhaps not surprising given the hardened position among decided voters and the very slim number of undecideds. And Kerry's Vietnam military record and antiwar activism more than 30 years ago has come under sharp attack by some veterans. Even though many of those charges have since been discredited and most Americans now believe that the GOP is connected to the attacks, it's been a major distraction for Kerry.

"He's catching javelins instead of throwing them," says Williams.

Still, the GOP convention opened with Bush and Kerry in a dead heat: Every recent nonpartisan poll shows the contenders within a few points of each other.

Elections like this one are always a referendum on the incumbent, so Bush and his opening acts in New York have their work cut out for them, especially among that razor-thin slice of voters in battleground states who've yet to make up their minds.

According to the Associated Press, the US public by a 3-to-1 margin think the war in Iraq increased rather than decreased the threat of terrorism, and six in 10 say the president does not have a clear plan for bringing the Iraq war to a successful resolution. Some polls show voters not particularly convinced, though, that Kerry has a better plan than Bush.

The latest CBS poll shows just 39 percent saying "things in this country are generally going in the right direction" with 55 percent feeling that "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track." Bush's job approval rating, according to this survey, is only 46 percent.

"That's a very powerful indicator of trouble for an incumbent," says William Lunch, who chairs the political science department at Oregon State University.

Broadly speaking, Bush is seen as strong on terrorism, but less so on the economy and healthcare. What the election may come down to, says Mr. Lunch, is how Americans see the war in Iraq.

"As time goes on, the rally-round-the-flag phenomenon has faded," says Lunch.

It was just that phenomenon that the first night of the Republican National Convention was meant to revive.

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