Chechen vote puts spotlight on Kremlin problem

Putin has long rejected negotiations with Chechen rebels, moderate or radical. Kadyrov, too, had refused talks. It's a position at odds with recent polling that suggests two-thirds of Russians favor a political process as a way out. But Alkhanov has stated that he has no problem talking with moderate Chechen rebel leader Aslan Maskhadov, who was elected in 1997 but is now accused of terrorism by Moscow.

"It would be unreasonable to expect at this stage a dialogue between a Chechen leader completely controlled by Moscow and the rebels," says Antonenko. "It really needs to be between Moscow and various rebel groups. But it's hard, because the Chechen resistance is so splintered - that's another downside of Putin's policy."

Kadyrov was "elected" in a vote last October that was widely seen as rigged. Key opponents were kept off the ballot and he dominated the airwaves. Now Alkhanov has had all the same advantages.

"The message from the Kremlin is, 'Under control, life is returning to normal,' and this is in contrast to every report we get from the ground," says Sarah Mendelson, a Russia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Please use quotation marks around 'vote,' because in this case the Kremlin is definitely going to get what it wants."

CSIS has helped conduct frequent surveys since 2001 about what Russians think of the war in Chechnya, among other issues. More than half say they know someone who served in Chechnya.

"The conventional wisdom is that Russians will bear anything," says Ms. Mendelson. "[But] people know what's going on, they know it's not normalized - that their boys are continuing to die - and this is what is very disturbing to Russians."

Demographic changes are also shifting the dynamic away from Moscow's favor, with a birthrate in Chechnya five times as great as that any in Russia, and a widespread breakdown in education services, says Hill at Brookings.

"You've got a population bulge in a region with very little prospects, and a group of people [in Chechnya] who have no positive feelings toward Russia whatsoever," says Hill. "It's this younger generation that is spitting out these ultraterrorists who are willing to die for a cause ... [and] there are more where they came from."

"In Kadyrov, you had a tough guy, a man who could crush everybody under his fist, and had a certain standing," says Hill. "But now Alkhanov seems a lot weaker. You've lost your strongman, who for better or worse, was creating some kind of stability. Where do you go from here? You're running out of personnel."

Page: 1 | 2