Standoff bolstered Sadr's support
Interviews with Iraqi Shiite clerics reveal that moderates are increasingly supporting Sadr's anti-US campaign.
Six months ago, Sheikh Jawad al-Khalasi was what most would consider an Iraqi Shiite moderate. Critical of the militant ideas of fellow Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, Mr. Khalasi preached a more cooperative approach toward the Americans and the interim Iraqi government.Skip to next paragraph
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Then, last Thursday, when Iraqi snipers opened fire on him and thousands of demonstrators converging on Najaf, hoping to end the siege there and protect the shrine, Khalasi changed his mind. Now he's a radical, a troubling sign that Mr. Sadr has grown stronger from a three-week-long standoff that the Iraqi government once hoped might reduce Sadr to irrelevance.
Sadr and his forces agreed on Friday to put down their weapons and withdraw from the Shrine of Imam Ali, one of Shiite Islam's holiest sites. But interviews in Baghdad suggest that Sadr is walking away from the standoff with a widening base and supporters who are more militant than before.
"This is the beginning of the end for the Americans," says Khalasi, speaking from his home in Baghdad's upper-class Shiite district of Kadhimiya. "What will happen now is that all the political parties will unite to kick the Americans out of Iraq. You have seen even the Sunni people starting to support Moqtada. All this will encourage people to be united."
The Najaf standoff was meant to be a turning point for the legitimacy of the new interim Iraqi government, showing its strength and will to defeat rebellious militias, not just in Najaf but around the country. But that turning point now looks like a wrong turn. While Khalasi's influence may be rather small - dwarfed by more powerful Shiite leaders like Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who brokered the Najaf truce - he appears to be a part of a growing disenchantment among Shiite clerics, and a weakening of Baghdad's ability to reach out to Iraq's largest religious group.
All sides are claiming victory in Najaf - the Americans say they expelled Sadr's forces, the Sadrists say they forced the Americans to withdraw from Najaf - but the momentum may be with Sadr. Interviews with Iraqis since the siege in Najaf ended indicate some of the moderates becoming radical, the radicals becoming suicidally committed, and the average Iraqi Shiite - while discontented with Sadr's methods - showing no sign of uniting in a backlash against him.
"A small organized minority is more effective than an unorganized majority," says Ghassan Atiyyah, head of the Iraq Foundation for Development and Democracy in Baghdad. "The question for the government is this: What have they offered the silent majority to get them involved in politics? They had the National Conference, and they squandered it. Instead of showing what the future of Iraqi democracy could look like, they played the same game of ruling party politics."
"The spread of the Sadr movement has been an ongoing phenomenon, but has picked up strength from the Najaf episode," says Juan Cole, a history professor and expert on Shiite Islam at the University of Michigan. "And, Moqtada's central message, of 'American troops out now!' has almost certainly moved from the fringes in May of 2003 to the political center among Iraqis in August 2004."
The question among Shiite leaders, says Mr. Cole, is: "When to make the big push to get the Americans out?"
"Moqtada thinks it should be now, and ongoing. The four grand ayatollahs in Najaf met on Saturday and issued their opinion that now is not the time for violent anti-American action. They want the Americans out, as well, but after the January elections," he says.
Ayatollah Sistani believes that the Shiites made a mistake in rebelling against the British in 1920, causing the colonial power to rely on the minority Sunnis, marginalizing Shiites for the rest of the century, says Cole. "Sistani is convinced that if the Shiites will just be patient, they can come to power via the ballot box. And then it will be relatively easy to just insist the Americans leave, without the need for violence."