Deadline looms in Sudan crisis

Four days from a United Nations deadline to disarm and punish those responsible for killing an estimated 30,000 people during the 18-month crisis in western Sudan, two key questions remain: Has the Sudanese government made sufficient progress to stave off possible UN sanctions? Probably. And, critically, does the UN have the will to follow through with its threats? Probably not.

"Khartoum remains adept at saying and doing just enough to avoid a robust international response; but the fact is they have not satisfactorily fulfilled their obligations within the time period established by the [July 30 UN] resolution," charges John Prendergast, an Africa expert at the International Crisis Group (ICG), based in Washington. "What we need now is direct, concerted pressure - otherwise, the Security Council risks being part of a long cycle of threats that have rarely been followed up meaningfully."

In a report released this week, the ICG called on the UN to impose sanctions against specific government officials and the key businesses of the rul- ing party; slap an arms embargo against the government; name and shame human rights violators; and even possibly put boots on the ground.

But all indicators here point toward far milder consequences.

British Foreign Minister Jack Straw, traveling this week to Darfur, emphasized the world's "collective interest to see a safe, secure, and more prosperous Sudan." But one aide, speaking on condition of anonymity, was more blunt. He sensed a "slackening of will among international partners" to impose harsh sanctions. Next week, added another Western official, "is not exactly a deadline." Security Council diplomats in New York, meanwhile, said punitive measures are unlikely because of political differences in the 15-member body, with China and Pakistan in particular favoring mild, if any, action.

This outcome could have been predicted early on when, five days after the Security Council resolution was passed, Jan Pronk, the UN's special envoy to Sudan, moved the goalposts. In a "Plan of Action," he acknowledged that Khartoum would be unlikely to meet its commitments within the time allotted. Good faith in working toward implementation, suggested Mr. Pronk, would be enough for the time being.

Still, while even goodwill and preliminary progress might be in short supply, say observers, there are some positive steps.

The main area of progress is on the humanitarian front. Back in June, aid groups were waiting months to get visas and travel permits, and supplies were getting blocked by customs. But this month at least six new nongovernmental organizations were given permits to operate in the region, and existing ones added staff and programs. Wednesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross announced plans to launch a major airlift to the region. It said it intends to make six trips into the region, carrying equipment and medical supplies, by Sept. 5.

"Pressure on the government has worked," says Adam Koons, director of Save the Children-USA in Sudan. "As horrible as the situation is, and much effort is still needed, we have averted enormous loss of life."

Page: 1 | 2