Georgia risks war over separatists

War clouds are gathering over the former Soviet Caucasus, as Georgia's ambitious US-backed President Mikheil Saakashvili moves to reunite his fractured nation by confronting two separatist provinces with close ties to Russia.

Unlike a previous cycle of vicious civil wars in the early 1990s, when the pro-Moscow republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia won de facto independence from Georgia, the current tensions threaten to draw Russia directly into any fresh conflict. The US, nervous over the security of a crucial oil pipeline slated to open next year across Georgia, backs Mr. Saakashvili's bid to restore central authority - as long as it doesn't erupt into open warfare.

Many Russian experts argue that Saakashvili ought to concentrate on solving Georgia's massive economic and social problems, and cooperate with Russia to find a negotiated settlement for Abkhazia and South Ossetia that addresses the historic complexities of these regions.

But others warn the region is a powderkeg that could explode, despite the best intentions in Moscow and Washington. "Georgia is the No. 1 flash point between the US and Russia just now. There are competing interests there which could be managed if Russia and the US cooperate closely, but could easily fly out of control if they don't," says Vitaly Naumkin, director of the independent Center for Strategic and International Studies in Moscow.

Saakashvili, a US-educated lawyer, has set out to reverse Georgia's reputation as a failed state since coming to power in the peaceful "Rose Revolution" that overthrew former Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze last November. He was elected in January, with over 90 percent of the vote, on pledges to end Georgia's official corruption, rebuild the economy, and reunify the country.

He scored a major success in May by peacefully driving out the strongman of another wayward Georgian region, Adjaria, and bringing it back under central government control.

Saakashvili insists his goal is to extend the democratic "Rose Revolution" and rule of law to all of Georgia. "These current tensions in South Ossetia began as a result of our successful and resolute efforts to put an end to the criminality and illegality that for too long was the norm in the South Caucasus," Saakash- vili said during a visit to the US last week.

Daily gun battles are reported from South Ossetia, a mountainous region of about 100,000, which straddles the most important pass through the Caucasus Mountains and enjoys very close relations with the neighboring Russian republic of North Ossetia. Saakashvili last week replaced the usual squads of border police in the area with US-trained Georgian troops. Violent incidents between them and Russian "peacekeeping" troops appear to be multiplying.

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