Dizzying pace of the '04 campaign

In an election that could hinge on a few percentage points in a few tossup states, the search for advantage by President Bush and Sen. John Kerry has reached a dizzying pace.

Campaign appearances in multiple states each day and topics of debate that can shift hour to hour are making it difficult for even political junkies to keep up. But more than just a rerun of the impossibly tight race in 2000, the 2004 campaign is infused with an intensity dictated by the times.

"This is the biggest election year since 1980, and the third-biggest since the start of the second half of the 20th century," says Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia, citing 1968 as the other big year. He defines a "big election" as one that is dominated both by macro issues and a welter of other important issues, all clamoring for attention.

Both Mr. Bush and Senator Kerry have already discovered that they have to be far more nimble than presidential candidates in most election years. As reflected in the dead-heat opinion polls, neither has gained a clear advantage. Sometimes, one stumbles - as analysts agree Kerry did on Monday, when he took the bait and answered Bush's question about whether he would have authorized an invasion of Iraq even knowing that no weapons of mass destruction would be found. Kerry said yes, and has been playing defense on the issue ever since.

But the issue landscape is so packed that Kerry and his surrogates can mitigate any negatives from one miscue by focusing on the plethora of other areas where he is beating the president, such as the economy, stem-cell research, and the environment.

Still, so far this week, Bush has used incumbency to his benefit by taking action - nominating a new director of central intelligence - leaving Kerry and Co. to kibitz from the sidelines.

The choice of Rep. Porter Goss (R) of Florida to run the CIA comes just two weeks after the White House had indicated there was no rush to replace George Tenet, who left the post on July 11. But when Kerry appeared to make inroads into Bush's advantage in polls on terrorism, Bush changed course. Now he has the Democrats back on their heels, as they raise cautious objections to the retiring Congressman Goss, a former CIA operative and current chairman of the House intelligence committee, Democrats say Goss is not the best candidate for the job, in part because he is a politician and an intelligence insider at a time when reform is required.

But Democrats have also conceded that Senate confirmation is likely, given the politicized atmosphere and the desire not to appear obstructive when the terrorism threat is high and US intelligence needs are paramount. When asked on NBC's "Today Show" Wednesday if Bush had set up a "win-win" situation for himself, Sen. Dick Durbin (D) agreed. Then he added: "I think the White House is playing this politically and I think that's unfortunate."

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