With deficit pledges, it's easy to welch

Here's something many Washington budget experts can agree on: The next president is not likely to deliver on pledges to cut the federal deficit. In fact, the red ink could rise unless there's a big economic surge.

So whoever takes over the White House next January probably faces a stark choice: raise taxes or watch interest rates rise.

Of course, no one can say that during the campaign season. Instead, the candidates take a tough stand against government red ink. President Bush has repeatedly promised to halve the deficit in five years. His Democratic opponent, Sen. John Kerry, has gone him one better, declaring he will halve it in four.

Can they do it?

It's "hard to take ... seriously" the Bush claim, says Stan Collender, author of "The Guide to the Federal Budget."

It's "unlikely" Mr. Kerry can achieve his budget goal, adds Robert Greenstein, executive director of the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP).

"The deficits aren't going to go away" whether a Republican or a Democrat occupies the White House, concludes economist John Irons, of OMB Watch, a Washington group seeking "accountable" government. Rather, barring unforeseen toughness in Washington, deficits will probably get worse over 10 years.

To begin with, President Bush doesn't really plan to cut the deficit in half. That takes tough measures. Instead, he plans to halve it as a percentage of the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) - its output of goods and services. So, merely normal growth in the economy over the next five years would shrink that GDP-to-deficit ratio sizably and leave a large deficit in dollar terms.

Here's another way to make the budget look better. In its mid-session review 10 days ago, the White House's Office of Management and Budget (OMB) claimed progress for fiscal 2004. It projected a deficit of $445 billion, down from its $521 billion forecast last February. OMB credited a stronger economy, resulting from the Bush tax cuts.

That's hooey, several budget experts agree. Back in February, CBPP economist Richard Kogan took the administration to task for purposely overestimating the 2004 deficit so it could announce significant progress before the presidential election. In fact, the deficit is up $70 billion from $375 billion in fiscal 2003.

The progress announced by the White House is really "political spin," says Mr. Greenstein. He figures the deficit will add up to $4 trillion to $5 trillion in the next 10 years.

Of course, the big budget story is the slide from big surplus to huge deficits during the Bush presidency. A large part of that deterioration is not his fault, stemming from the stock market's meltdown and the recent economic slump. But even according to OMB figures, more than half of the slide - 57 percent - was caused by the Bush tax cuts.

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