Risky bid to stem Shiite insurgency

In the face of renewed fighting with the militia of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, Iraq's prime minister has embarked on a risky strategy for neutralizing one of the biggest challenges his interim government has faced since taking nominal control of Iraq at the end of June.

Prime Minister Iyad Allawi is extending a tentative olive branch to Sadr, indicating a political role will be found for the renegade cleric if he convinces his militia to lay down their arms and quit Najaf. On the other side of the equation, he announced the return of the death penalty and left an implied threat of crushing the militia with US forces if Sadr doesn't comply.

On Saturday, Allawi declared a broad amnesty for low-level criminals and those assisting the insurgency, and welcomed militant Shiite Muslim leaders such as Sadr to take part in January elections. "I believe gunmen should leave the holy sites ... quickly, lay down their weapons and return to the rule of order and law," Mr. Allawi said in a brief visit to Najaf Sunday. He did not meet with Sadr or any of his aides. But with signs of continued defiance from Sadr's camp, Allawi also runs the risk of losing the initiative in a war that is as much about propaganda as it is about military force. Though Sadr's militia is no match for the US military, his men are dug in around one of the holiest shrines in Shia Islam and mixed among civilians. A full crackdown therefore runs the risk of large civilian casualties and blowback throughout Iraq.

Allawi "doesn't have the indigenous forces sufficient to do what's required to root Sadr out of Najaf's city center. For an Iraqi politician to go into the holiest city in Shia Islam with US or multinational forces would be a gift [to Sadr]," says Mario Mancuso, a US Army captain who did political liaison work in Najaf last year. He was reached by phone in Washington, where he now works as a private-sector lawyer.

As a US-installed leader and former CIA operative, Allawi is viewed with suspicion by many Iraqis. Sadr has repeatedly attacked Allawi's legitimacy.

Also Saturday, Allawi ordered a punitive one-month shutdown of the Arab satellite news network Al Jazeera for "inciting hatred," something that is also being painted by his opponents as evidence of his closeness to the US. Al Jazeera has frequently been attacked by US officials for allegedly biased coverage in Iraq.

Sadr spokesman Hazim al-Araji told Al Jazeera that the Mahdi Army remains committed to its positions in Najaf, and dismissed Allawi as untrustworthy. "He first praised al-Sadr but then called his followers 'terrorists,' " Mr. Araji said. "The Shia authorities have not ordered us to leave Najaf. On the contrary, we received reports stating they are satisfied with the current situation."

As Sadr's profile has risen again, Iraq's most respected Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani left Iraq Friday for the first time in years. His aides said he was seeking treatment in Britain for a heart condition. Ayatollah Sistani, while no ally of the US, has avoided making any directly anti-American statements and has often proven a steadying presence for Iraq's volatile Shiite community.

He also has barely concealed distaste for Sadr's militancy, and shortly after the US invasion last year went into hiding fearing attack from Sadr's supporters. His absence now, for whatever reason, certainly strengthens Sadr's hand.

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