Stranded in an unwelcome land

In other cases, host nations retain political influence by keeping custody of warehoused refugees.

"What they say [to neighbors] is: 'Do X or I will unleash a massive outflow of refugees,' " says Kelly Greenhill, a Stanford University political scientist who studies political and military uses of refugees. "It's more common than people recognize," she adds, noting that Fidel Castro in Cuba and Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia have each used the technique of threatening a flood of refugees.

In the short term, Dr. Greenhill says, warehousing seems to provide security for wary host countries as well as for potential asylum-granting nations who fear an influx of dangerous individuals. But in the long term, she suspects warehousing might actually destabilize situations as "it breeds support for the insurgents."

At this point, the challenge for refugee advocates is to persuade donor nations and host countries that less warehousing would not only improve refugee lives but also enhance international security. Mr. Smith points to instances where refugees have settled among local populations, who often need an economic boost, and enabled those around them to prosper.

In Syria, for instance, 240,000 Palestinian refugees are allowed to move about and work, creating both value and markets for local economies. By assimilating Palestinians into the society, in Smith's view, Syria has improved the nation's economic standing without compromising its political goals. "Nobody is more militant toward Israel than Syria, yet they let the Palestinians have their rights," Smith says.

Ms. Jacobsen argues that international aid funds should go not only to sustain camps but also to help governments who host refugees, on condition that they give them rights and help them assimilate. Locals might cry foul, she says, but some might also see an opportunity.

"You can say migrants are creating more problems, or you can say migrants are boosting the economy," Jacobsen says. "It all depends on which data you use. There's plenty of data to support each side."

As this year's efforts to address warehousing roll on, advocates are keeping one eye on the welfare of refugees and one on the complex political realities that make an end to warehousing more easily said than done. But for nations that link less warehousing with more security and prosperity, solutions might not be so far off.

"If the West continues to ignore chronic and long-lasting refugee populations," says Loescher, a refugee and security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, "there will not only be greater insecurity in the already unstable regions of refugee origin, but also greater risk of these problems spilling over into the Western countries."

• Top destinations for immigrants (1970-1995):

1) United States (16.7 million)

2) Russian Federation (4.1 million)

3) Saudi Arabia (3.4 million)

• Leading emigrant nations (1970-1995):

1) Mexico (6 million)

2) Bangladesh (4.1 million)

3) Afghanistan (4.1 million)

• Countries with largest migrant remittances from the US (2001):

1) India ($10 billion)

2) Mexico ($9.9 billion)

3) Philippines ($7 billion)

SOURCE: International Organization for Migration

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