Would China invade Taiwan?

The consequences could bring a changed Japanese economic strategy: The Japanese would do everything they could, a Tokyo source in a Taiwan trading house states, to redirect the markets of Asia, including its own, away from China. "We will lose money" to restructure east Asian markets and "change the future," the source says.

Nor would Moscow ignore an attack on Taiwan. On the contrary, a foreign diplomat here argues that military action across the straits could provide Moscow an excuse to sell oil exclusively to Japan. Russia is not desirous of China developing quickly into a superpower; it can use oil as a stick, not a carrot, in the relationship. An aggressive China "presses a lot of old historical buttons," for Russia says one diplomat. A pipeline across Siberia that may well branch off to both China and Japan could be scrapped - leaving Japan the sole beneficiary. Oil is a highly sensitive question in Beijing: China reportedly has only a 20-day reserve, and is now 75 percent reliant on the Middle East.

Finally, China has no desire to destroy its relationship with the US.

Time is not on Beijing's side. A few years ago party brain-trusts argued that economic integration would force Taiwan into the fold. Yet, politically, Taiwan is becoming more, not less, self- contained and democratic. Taiwan is planning to amend its constitution and restructure its government. Such plans are viewed askance in a communist party structure not known for adaptability or negotiating questions that can be solved by power. China's military states it is "nearly ready" for a strike.

Some China watchers say the internal dynamics at the top are forcing Beijing to take action. In this speculative argument, China's leaders cannot agree deeply on much except the need to acquire Taiwan. Internal factional struggles, it is argued, are forcing decisions based on patriotism - even if privately leaders are opposed to military action.

"Taiwan is one of the two pillars of Beijing's legitimacy. Regaining Taiwan brings an end to historical humiliation," says Mr. Mitchell of CSIS. "For the Chinese psyche, the unity of the nation is equated to national greatness."

Another case: China can launch its forces because the Americans did so in Iraq. This view is popular on the street.

The argument meshes with one heard in more elite circles: The US is too busy in Iraq to get involved over a small Pacific island. Yan Xuetong, Tsinghua University professor and top advocate for military action, argues that a military venture that brings Taiwan to the negotiating table would get limited international attention, "something like Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

The inverse of this argument is also getting play. It suggests the world will react badly to an aggression on Taiwan but that soon enough "everyone will get over it," as one expert stated. Pro-military thinkers bank heavily on this point.

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