Asia hungry for nuclear power

Already there are signs that nuclear power is beginning to make a comeback in the US. Three new permits are currently undergoing review and 26 existing plants have so far had licenses extended for 20 more years.

But worldwide, nuclear power accounts for just 16 percent of global electricity output - the same as in 1986. An IAEA report released this weekend notes that expert projections, based on future energy needs and expected depletion of fossil fuels, indicate that nuclear power will increase 2.5 times by 2030, to 27 percent of global output.

That trend, many say, could help ease global warming. To illustrate the difference, the IAEA figures that shutting down every nuclear plant and replacing it with nonnuclear sources would result in 600 million tons of carbon per year: twice the amount meant to be cut by the Kyoto Protocol in 2010.

But how safe is a nuclear future? "Do I ever lose sleep [over safety issues]? No. Do I ever lose a sense of concern? No, that concern is always there," says Ken Brockman, director of the IAEA's division of Nuclear Installation Safety. Lessons of past accidents now mean stricter rules and a host of backup and safety mechanisms.

"Three Mile Island led to "total public skepticism, and in some quarters it's way beyond skepticism - it's just a violent anti," says Mr. Brockman, who worked for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission until early last year.

Today the pendulum is beginning to swing back. "I think there will be a grudging acceptance," says Brockman. "It's not like Star Trek, where the entire planet is powered by hundreds of fusion reactors, but it will be part of the [energy] mix."

"The people pushing this are industry, and even regulators like the NRC," says George Bunn, a nuclear expert now at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. "People haven't paid attention [to nuclear issues] for a long time. Chernobyl and Three Mile Island are a long way back in time. There's a new generation that doesn't remember that."

A reason for spreading nuclear materials is the 1968 nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) - it codifies acceptability of countries to pursue peaceful nuclear technology.

While scientists dreamed of nuclear-powered cars, aircraft, rockets, and even a dirigible, the technical liberties have been abused by several nations. India used Atoms for Peace cooperation as the "bedrock" for its secret weapons program. Israel also, before it quietly began receiving bombmaking assistance from France inthe late 1950s, considered using Atoms for Peace in the same way.

North Korea beefed up its nuclear technology legally until last year, when it withdrew from the NPT and declared its secret pursuit of the bomb. Washington argues that Iran, which was rebuked earlier this month by the IAEA for not fully cooperating with inspections, is following that same path.

Another long-term problem is the fate of nuclear waste, which "so far in the last 50 years has been piling up a lot faster than we've been able to find repositories," says Ferguson of Monterey. There is a "fundamental mismatch" between the 40-year lifespan of a nuclear plant and its residual impact.

"So you get a greenhouse gas benefit that is a tremendous long-term issue we've got to deal with," he says. "But even longer term is the spent fuel ... that will stay radioactive for 10,000 years."

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