Why Sudan has become a Bush priority

The last time a US secretary of State visited Sudan was 1978, when Jimmy Carter's envoy, Cyrus Vance, stopped to refuel his plane.

But in a sign of Sudan's growing significance, Colin Powell arrived Tuesday for a high-profile two-day visit. The trip is the latest evidence of a major shift in US policy toward the Muslim-led state that once harbored Osama bin Laden.

The visit is primarily aimed at halting the suffering and violence in Sudan's western region of Darfur, home to the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

But analysts say it may also fulfill other White House goals. If the Bush team can bring Sudan back into the family of nations, as it did this week with Libya, it would gain a diplomatic victory for the war on terror. It could also fire up its Christian-conservative base by securing a peace deal in Sudan's other war, a 21-year conflict between the Muslims in the north and the largely Christian south. And it could keep critics from having another issue with which to pillory its foreign policy if it can prevent a repeat of Rwanda's 1994 genocide in Sudan.

"People are starting to use the term genocide" in connection with Darfur, says Jennifer Cooke of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington. "That accusation, especially in an election year, and particularly after this administration has put so much effort" into a north-south peace agreement, "is not something they want to deal with." Furthermore, she says, if they can strengthen ties with Sudan's government, "they could make the case that, 'Our strong confrontation against terror has been productive not only in Iraq, but we've also brought some rogue states back into the fold.' "

The US motives for engaging in the Darfur crisis may not be entirely altruistic, observers say, but the Bush team's passion about Sudan also helps ensure that serious relief may actually arrive for Darfur's at-risk masses.

In comments just ahead of the trip, Andrew Natsios, head of the US Agency for International Development, who was traveling with Mr. Powell, said up to 1 million Sudanese refugees could die this year due to government-supported ethnic cleansing.

In a measure of the administration's commitment on the issue, Mr. Natsios took the unusual step last week of using satellite images to highlight the destruction of some 300 villages by Arab Janjaweed militias, which are apparently backed by Sudan's government. The Janjaweed have been killing, raping, and robbing mainly black villagers, who are ethnically - and perhaps politically - connected to two rebel groups that began an antigovernment struggle in 2003.

Another US official, war-crimes ambassador Pierre-Richard Prosper, also said recently that the US had found "indicators of genocide" in the region, which is about the size of Texas. The United Nations says that 30,000 people have died so far and 1 million have been displaced.

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