Pakistani Army must go through the Pashtuns

Setting off intertribal rivalries is a risky game - part of the reason why Pashtuns themselves are reluctant to do it. In a culture where every violent act is followed by an equal and opposite attack, most Pashtuns adopt a surprisingly nonviolent ethos.

"Tribal lashkars [militias] cannot be effective, because tribals are threatened with dire consequences if they take any action," says a tribal elder and former legislator, Malik Waris Khan Afridi. Pakistan encouraged tribesmen to form posses to round up the foreigners and their supporters, but the lashkars caught no one.

Yet US pressure is clearly mounting on Pakistan to quash the militants. In April, US ambassador to Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, stated in a speech that if Pakistan didn't remove the foreign fighters, US troops would cross over from Afghanistan and do it themselves.

Pakistan's recent offensive and killing of Naik Mohammad should buy Islamabad some time, but the fight is far from over. Al Qaeda maintains support in the tribal belt through a mixture of ideology, shared history fighting the Soviets, and money.

Following the deal with the military, Al Qaeda issued an ultimatum, described by one aide to Naik Mohammad this way: "We are born to sacrifice our lives in the name of Allah, not to indulge in tricks and deals to save our lives. Either be a mujahid [holy warrior] or join the Americans and their supporters."

However, Al Qaeda threats are accompanied with gifts. Al Qaeda purchased local property for training camps at handsome prices.

"It is the economics of jihad playing its role in Waziristan," says Dilawar Khan, an educated tribesman. "Some sold the foreigners tomatoes for 500 rupees, some sold their houses for 500,000 rupees, charging 10 times the price. Why would they kill the hen when they get golden eggs from it?"

Such a deal becomes even more attractive to those who consider supporting Al Qaeda's to be a service to Islam.

Islamabad, for its part, has also dangled monetary carrots, including million-dollar development projects to construct roads and schools. But development is a longer term pay off than cash handouts from Al Qaeda. And Pakistani incentives may not involve a wide enough group.

"Prior to this, development projects were just to bribe pro-government tribal elders or influential chieftains," says analyst Behroz Khan in Peshawar. "The effective way of governance in the tribal areas is jirga [and] development projects should rout through it to give the locals a sense of participation."

The government since British times has largely left the Pashtun tribes to rule themselves.Military operations were left for extraordinary circumstances. Today, the Pakistan is using many of the same British tactics of old. In Wana, the market has been closed down as collective punishment.

Apparently feeling the heat, tribesmen Wednesday insisted that authorities lift the economic sanctions and release detainees. The government countered by reiterating its demand for the handover of the remaining four pro-Al Qaeda leaders.

Opinions are divided on whether Naik Mohammad's demise will ultimately advance Islamabad's agenda.

"Killing Naik Mohammad is not going to stop anything," says Milt Beardon, a former CIA station chief in Islamabad. "Ultimately, [Al Qaeda] will find a new guy to take his place."

But his death has temporarily stunned the tribes, and deprived the foreign fighters of a key backer and main liaison with the local population. "He was the strongest link between Al Qaeda and local militants and cannot be replaced easily," says Mr. Noor, the educated tribesman.

An interim successor has been chosen named Haji Mohammad Umer, who is believed to be more flexible than Naik Mohammad. The timing may be right for another round of negotiations.

"The militants will want to buy time and the authorities will not want to lose this opportunity to further weaken the nexus [between foreigners and locals] by using a carrot and stick policy against the tribesmen," says Mr. Noor.

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