US must invest in science of dot-connecting

The terrorists attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, demonstrated the urgent need for the US government to use insights from "complexity science" to better understand our interconnected world.

"Complexity thinking" is an essential 21st-century skill. It involves recognizing changes in the broadest context; taking a big-picture approach to intelligence-gathering and analysis; and developing deeper understanding of complex human systems and the dynamics influencing regional politics and conflicts.

By all rational assessments, 9/11 was a systems failure. While individuals and agencies within our intelligence and law-enforcement organizations may have performed exceptionally, there was a significant failure as a whole to recognize and respond decisively to the growing threats in the years and months leading up to 9/11.

This is the conclusion that the 9/11 commission seems to have reached, even before its final report is issued. It is also the answer given by Condoleezza Rice, President Bush's national security adviser, and other key witnesses before the commission, which is holding its last hearings this week.

The remedy for a major systems failure is not just moving the boxes around, as was done in creating the Department of Homeland Security. More important is changing the thinking of those inside the system. Many in the intelligence community - including Marvin Cetron, author of "Terror 2000," a 1993 report that predicted the use of planes to strike the World Trade Center and the Pentagon - say we just don't have the right kind of analysts.

The CIA showed it is finally getting the message by sponsoring a recent international conference, New Frontiers in Intelligence Analysis. The gathering in Rome was based on the premise that analysts must do a better job connecting the dots, seeing emerging patterns in disparate types of information, and helping policymakers understand the dangers earlier.

The US needs analysts capable of making sense of a rapidly changing, complex global environment. We need more "big picture" thinkers who can quickly synthesize information from a variety of sources; spot subtle connections, emerging patterns, and discontinuities; and ask questions even before the "dots" are fully formed. We saw after 9/11 that by the time dots start appearing, it may be too late to connect them in any immediately useful way.

An example of the need for new approaches to intelligence gathering, analysis, and reporting hit me in 2002, when a US Customs training coordinator contacted me about the possibility of developing an educational program for senior analysts based on complex systems thinking. When asked what type of training analysts were receiving - eight months after the biggest intelligence failure in recent history - he replied, "We're teaching them how to write reports." While report-writing is essential, it's more critical that analysts develop nonlinear thinking and pattern-recognition skills in order to recognize and quickly put together information about the evolving ecosystem of global terrorism.

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