Insurgency pattern spans Islamic nations

That point was illustrated by Monday's car bombing in Baghdad that ripped through a convoy of Westerners, killing at least 13 people, five of whom were foreigners. Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi vowed "to bring these criminals to justice as soon as possible." But at the scene of the attack, crowds were seen celebrating the destruction, with some chanting, "Down with the USA!"

In Afghanistan, 11 Chinese workers building a road were killed last week, part of a general upswing in violence that some observers fear could threaten elections planned for September.

And in Saudi Arabia, Westerners have been targeted in a wave of attacks. One American was abducted, with his captors claiming they will subject him to measures reflective of the treatment Iraqi detainees were subject to in Abu Ghraib prison.

Such tactics appear to have replaced for now the bombings that have hit foreign compounds and government installations. "They have learned that killing Saudis and even foreign Muslims backfires on them," says Heritage's Mr. Phillips.

The Saudi case is complicated by the fact that the royal regime's legitimacy derives in part from its status as keeper of Islam's holiest sites, says Levitt of the Washington Institute. With the regime's other pillar of public legitimacy - its historic provision of cradle-to-grave well-being - "no longer financially tenable," the importance of the religious connection becomes more crucial.

And that, he adds, makes the regime more hesitant to act against religious extremists and their supporters in high places. "In areas like terror financing the Saudis have done a lot of good, but unless they go farther and hold some member of the Saudi elite responsible, they won't have crossed a threshold," Levitt says. "If they did that, they would reap public support for the action."

A report released this week by a high-level task force of the Council on Foreign Relations makes similar conclusions, finding the Saudi government has failed to hold any well-connected individuals accountable for terror-financing activities.

Still, the Saudi regime is on much more solid ground than the other two, which are trying to establish legitimacy from scratch, says Phillips. "The problem of the Saudi regime is that even with these attacks, it remains in a certain denial," he says. "But it faces a long-term problem."

Some experts like Mr. Bacevich of Boston University say the deteriorating situation in Saudi Arabia also suggests that one of the justifications for war in Iraq is not panning out.

"One of the arguments ... was that toppling Saddam Hussein would allow us to withdraw from Saudi Arabia, and that would relieve a major irritant playing into the hands of the Islamist radicals," he says. "Saddam is gone and our military presence [in Saudi Arabia] is pretty much gone ... but that has not eased the pressure on the Saudi regime."

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