Panda population jumps, but outlook not black and white

Panda estimates vary: Chinese officials say that bears up to 18 months old do not leave distinctive teeth marks. This missing baby panda cohort in the survey has led some authorities here to claim the actual number of pandas is closer to 2,000. Chinese officials did not issue such assertions on paper. But Thursday they told reporters, "the number of pandas has doubled" since 1988. If true, it would indicate a dramatic reversal in what is commonly believed among naturalists about the state of the panda in the wild.

Yet it is not clear such panda progress is accurate. The reason: Most independent researchers now feel the earlier 1988 survey figure of 1,100 pandas was an underestimate. Hence the meaning of the new 1,590 panda figure is unclear.

Field survey techniques were similar 15 years ago. But the scope of the 1988 survey was limited. Karen Baragona, a specialist with the WWF, says the 1988 figure "was an extrapolation ... and likely an underestimate."

"The population estimate may have doubled, but the population number has not doubled," says Ms. Baragona of the panda status. "That's just not possible."

Mr. Schaller the naturalist points out that between 1975 and 1988, half of the pandas in the Wolong Reserve perished; Baragona points out that during the same period, "half the habitats in Sichuan [Province] were lost."

Pandas aren't part of traditional Chinese animal lore. One reason may be their foggy 8,500-foot isolated habitat. The bears, with their black and white markings, large heads, and flat faces made a terrific impression in the West. Yet little is known about these curious mammals.

They use their black eye patches to stare down one another in mating season, experts say, but will cover the eye-patches with their paws when they are afraid. At one point pandas were considered part of the raccoon family; but DNA results show they are bears. They love solitude, and desire the new leaves of the better brand of bamboo. Their very active 14-hour days are mostly spent eating in an area that may be only five to six city blocks in size. They have a carnivorous digestive tract, but are almost entirely vegetarian in practice.

Environmentalists dislike China's high price rental of pandas to overseas zoos, saying the funds should be used to protect the wild panda.

Schaller wrote during the panda-craze of the 1980s that "if we want to burden the panda with symbolism, reverence, and adulation, fine. However, we have a moral obligation to maintain the species in the wild."

Hard data on panda habitats has been useful to Chinese forestry officials, sources say. In one case transport officials agreed to build a tunnel rather than a road near a Sichuan mountain. Yet whether Beijing can staff and fund its new panda reserves, or carry out regular enforcement, is not certain, Beijing sources note.

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