Al Qaeda targets US oil supplies

Saudi Aramco employs some 54,000 people including 2,300 US and Canadian citizens and about 1,100 Europeans, the Saudi Aramco's chief executive, Abdullah Jumah, told Arab News. The expatriates are in top management and in the medical and highly specialized engineering and technical fields, says Husseini. But if they all left, oil production would not be affected he says.

"It's a highly automated industry, there's a highly skilled Saudi labor force, Western expatriates are a small minority, and they would be replaced within a short period," he says.

The crackdown by Saudi security forces since an attack on Western housing compounds in Riyadh last year has also resulted in the terrorist group prompting go-it-alone operations and providing how-to tips on the Internet, Al Qaeda expert Mr. Sarhan says.

Since last May, hundreds of militants have been arrested and dozens killed in suicide attacks and in shootouts with police. Increased security and checkpoints in all major cities and the relentless pursuit by police of some 30 trained Al Qaeda- linked fighters has netted huge weapons caches and hampered their movements. Police have found more than 10 booby-trapped cars set to explode, tens of thousands of dollars, and dozens of fake identification papers.

Some analysts say that going after "soft" targets, such as housing compounds rather than oil production facilities, is evidence of a terror group on the ropes. They also note that the militants are now relying on the Internet to gain and train new recruits.

In a statement on a militant website several weeks ago, the head of Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia encouraged young men to join Al Qaeda's jihad, or holy war, against "the enemies of Islam" and said they did not need to get in direct touch with group members or get permission to carry out jihad. Those interested in jihad need only "create a cell that prepares itself and chooses targets approved by God and then carry out the operation," the statement by al-Miqrin says. Training tips on attacks could be found in some of the group's literature on the Web, he adds.

Al-Miqrin also praised the Yanbu attack. "The Yanbu cell which this month carried out the daring and successful operation is one of the best examples. They hit the enemy in an important economic facility which had a big effect on world oil prices which continues to this day."

"Oil is the blood of the world economy and Al Qaeda want to strike at it through the Saudi facilities," says Abdullah Bjad al-Otaibi, a writer at al-Riyadh newspaper.

The attacks will likely lead to a terror and security premium on oil prices of between $5 to $10, says Ali Dakkak, a professor of petroleum economics at King Abdul-Aziz University.

"Though OPEC's goal is currently about $25 per barrel, oil prices of $30 to $35 dollars are more realistic given the extra costs of security and fighting terrorism," Dr. Dakkak says.

The Qatari oil minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiya, told reporters upon arrival in Beirut for Thursday's OPEC meeting that the oil price already reflects anxiety about production security in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. "I can say that the equivalent of $8 of a barrel price is the result of the factor of fear," Mr. al-Attiya said. "We at OPEC have done our best to remove this factor through our assurance that there won't be any supply crisis."

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