Not yet nyet to democracy

Nearly half of Russians "are more ready than anybody else to move towards much more radical, systemic democratic reform," says Lilia Shevtsova, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center, citing polls using methodology that she says she trusts. "Only 20 percent of Russian society still has this nostalgia over the past, the empire, the dictatorship."

The argument that Russians are anti-democratic also has political uses for those few who have real wealth and real power. "The elite is different - the elite is against democracy because they don't know how to operate, how to compete, how to survive, when you have to fight politically," says Ms. Shevtsova. "We can't blame Putin for everything, because ... all these hyenas tell him: 'Actually, Vladimir Vladimirovich, you are doing just fine. Look at the polls: Russia is not ready for democracy. You have to collect all the instruments of power in your hands.'"

Still, Putin's speech Wednesday raised eyebrows. "For the first time ever Putin dared speak clearly about democracy, values of a free society and even spiritual rapprochement with Europe," noted an analysis in Izvestia. The president "evidently wanted everybody to understand that the value of freedom [is] the basic principle of his last term."

But the English- language Moscow Times asked if Putin would "practice what he preaches." Roland Nash, chief strategist for Renaissance Capital in Moscow, wrote in the Times. "Liberalism, the rule of law, private property, and a free media sound great from the podium," he wrote, though in practice they can be "an annoying inconvenience."

The disconnect stems partly from different definitions and expectations of democracy - between Russia and the West, and ruler and ruled. Poll results of ROMIR Monitoring published Wednesday found that quality-of-life issues dominated Russians' national priorities; "developing democracy" scored just 1 percent support.

"Lots of people don't understand that almost a majority [of Russians] think [that] what Putin is doing is making democracy more effective," says Stanford's McFaul. His poll, conducted during election cycles, finds that 80 percent of Russians say democracy has not worked well here, though 75 percent agree that rulers should be elected. Some 80 percent also reject military rule.

Confusion starts at the top. "When push comes to shove, Putin does believe that Russia should be a democracy, in large measure because he thinks of Russia as part of the West," says McFaul. "Democracy for him is a proxy for the West. He'snot proposing an alternative project. It's not Hitler; it's not Stalin, who just flat rejected [democracy]."

But Putin, a former KGB agent, "fears independent folks with power, because that's a challenge to his power," adds McFaul. "He frames that as a power struggle, as good guys versus bad guys, as patriots versus traitors. That's the contradiction in his words versus actions."

A Russia-adjusted definition also applies to the term "rule of law," says Carnegie's Shevtsova. Unlike in Western contexts where government figures are confined by laws, "the rule of law has become one of the most crucial instruments of consolidation of executive power - this is the Russia paradox."

"Nothing can move without the endorsement of executive power," she says. "The rule of law is the servant of the executive."

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