How gas prices figure into 'big picture' politics

Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona complained that the administration lacks planning - long-term or short-term - to decrease dependency on Middle East petroleum. Gov. Jennifer Granholm of Michigan likened the rise in gas prices to a tax increase and demanded "action on behalf of the citizens who live in our states."

The administration, for its part, argues that rising gas prices are a result of surging demand, both here and in Asia, and a sign of renewed prosperity. Furthermore, the Bush campaign asserts, if Senator Kerry had had his way, the public would be paying 50 cents a gallon more for gas, on top of the latest increases, because of his past support for higher gas taxes.

And, says Bush campaign spokesman Steve Schmidt, "Kerry has obstructed efforts to enact a comprehensive energy policy that would ensure a reliable energy supply, key to lowering gas prices."

The administration has withstood Democrats' demands to take oil out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), saying the SPR is meant for crisis disruptions to the oil supply, not just to mitigate rising prices. Kerry did not join his 20 Senate colleagues in this demand, which analysts say would do little to bring down the prices, though he did suggest that Bush stop adding to the SPR. Oil analysts also note that when President Clinton took oil out of the SPR shortly before the 2000 election, results were mixed.

But Democrats, seeing Bush struggle in Iraq, smell opportunity for November - and are happy to tie together Iraq and gas prices. At a campaign appearance in Portland, Ore., earlier this week, Kerry declared: "No young American in uniform should ever be held hostage to America's dependence on oil in the Middle East."

And in California, spiraling gas prices may be killing a Bush campaign dream that the popularity of Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger could make the state competitive for the president.

As with elsewhere in the country, Californians aren't directly blaming Bush for rising gas prices - now $3 a gallon in Santa Barbara and $2.50 or higher in Los Angeles - but they do see him as not doing anything to hold prices down.

"We had the energy crisis here a couple of years ago, and now there's considerably more suspicion about the Bush administration and its relation to the oil industry here," says Democratic consultant Bill Carrick. In focus groups, he says, if you ask people what they think Bush is going to do about gas prices, they laugh.

"I think this is a real sleeper issue in the campaign," says Mr. Carrick, who worked on the presidential campaign of Rep. Dick Gephardt. "It cuts strongly in Kerry's favor."

The Bush campaign's attempt to direct blame at Kerry by highlighting his past support for higher gas taxes shows the campaign is anticipating that the gas issue could spell trouble for Bush, he adds. "It would make no sense otherwise; it just fell out of the sky."

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