Russia holds veto on Kyoto treaty

The Kyoto deal, reached in 1997 and already endorsed by almost 100 countries, requires that developed states representing 55 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions must ratify it before it can become international law. States accounting for about 40 percent have already signed on to Kyoto, while the US, which emits 30 percent of the world's CO2, has opted out. That leaves Russia, with a "quota" of around 20 percent, holding an effective veto over the entire plan.

The quota treats Russia as if it were still the USSR in 1990, a highly industrialized state responsible for a fifth of the world's CO2 emissions. Mr. Illarionov told a December meeting at the independent Moscow Carnegie Center that post-Soviet Russia is actually a developing economy, like China; developing countries are exempt from Kyoto restrictions. Due to the severe economic slump over the past decade, Russia's CO2 emissions have plummeted. However, Putin has set a national goal of doubling Russia's gross domestic product by 2010. "The Kyoto Protocol discriminates against Russia," Illarionov said. "Russia, which now actually accounts for just 6 percent of greenhouse gas emissions, will have to implement reductions while China, which accounts for 13 percent, has no obligations and the US, which accounts for almost a third, has rejected them altogether."

Environmentalists argue that Kyoto offers Russia a way to avoid Soviet-style, energy-intensive growth and leapfrog into the future. They point out that other nations, such as Britain, have achieved high growth rates while reducing CO2 emissions. Britain did this largely by replacing old coal-fired power stations with natural gas ones. "If we switch to cleaner energy sources and available high technologies we can modernize our economy and stay well within the Kyoto quotas," says Natalya Oleferenko, a Greenpeace-Russia project manager.

Russia now produces far less carbon gas than in 1990 - at least one third less, according to most experts. Under the terms of Kyoto, it could sell that shortfall to bigger polluters - a business that advocates say could yield profits for Moscow of up to $10 billion annually. "If we handle the excess quotas skillfully, the resulting golden shower could jump-start modernization of our whole economy," says Ms. Oleferenko.

But Russian skeptics insist that "quota" sales are pie-in-the-sky, with nobody offering guarantees. "Who would buy our excess polluting capacity?" says Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politika Foundation, an independent think tank. "The US will not join Kyoto, and developing countries are exempt. Western Europe has agreed to comply with the protocol and cut its own emissions. It's obvious that there are no paying customers for Russia in this deal."

Oleferenko complains that the issue has become hostage to international relations, with Putin alternately entertaining the anti-Kyoto views of US President Bush and the European enticements for Russia to get on board. "The ecological and economic aspects have been shoved aside," she says. "Now it all depends on US pressure or European concessions."

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