Chechnya and Iraq comparisons not so simple

The Christian Science Monitor cites Valery Tiskov, a Chechnya expert with the official Institute of Ethnology in Moscow as saying:

This blow is comparable to the Americans losing their top administrator in Iraq at one moment.... It's a huge loss for the process of restoration [of federal rule] in Chechnya.

"The Kremlin is in a war it can neither win nor lose, and a decade on it shows no signs of letting up," editorializes the Baltimore Sun. "Is this what Iraq will look like 10 years from now?"

Now, two days later numerous European editorials and commentaries see more than comparisons between Iraq and Chechnya. European opinion suggests that circumstances are much more dire in Chechnya than Iraq.

As difficult as Iraq is for President George W. Bush, Vladimir Putin, faces a much more intractable problem in Chechnya.

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A roundup of European editorials translated into English by the German news site Deutsche Welle examines the extent of the political vacuum in Chechnya after Kadyrov's death, highlighting the limited options available to Putin.

Italy's Corriere della Sera agreed that Putin's operations in Chechnya and Bush's in Iraq were similar in that both face an "explosive mixture of political nationalism and religious fundamentalism."

They seem to share the same fate, too - with one exception. ...After trying out all possible solutions in Iraq, the US can always back down a step maybe even with the United Nations taking on a larger role. The Russians,...have got their backs up against the wall.

The Madrid daily, El Pais editorialized that "Putin's efforts to put down the rebels in the Caucasus have failed."

Politically, he hasn't been accepted by the population, and militarily, he is in no position to stop the terrorism. Political negotiations are Putin's only option now, a consideration he has already rejected.

Der Standard from Vienna considered Kadyrov's death, "A direct humiliation for the Russian president who just began his second term in office with much pomp and ceremony."

Putin's political concept for Chechnya has finally failed. [and] Whatever retaliation the Russian president might have in mind won't change that fact.

Germany's Darmst���dter Echo viewed Sunday's bomb attack against Akhmad Kadyrov as:

a heavy blow to Putin's step-by-step efforts at defusing the conflict in the Caucausus. More violence and more victims are bound to be the result. ...All the same, Putin cannot afford to let Chechnya leave the Russian Federation. ...Putin must fear the destabilization of the highly sensitive region - a development the West has no interest in, either.

The dilemma that confronts Putin is that, without an allied strongman to keep Chechnya within the Russian federation, he must somehow restore stability to a region that historically has only known peace when under the sway of a strongman, writes the Moscow Times.

The assassination of Akhmad Kadyrov has created a power vacuum in Chechnya that the Kremlin might find hard to fill, given that he had sidelined all of his potential rivals while manning his retinue with people chosen for their loyalty rather than their professional skills or political experience.

Defense analyst Pavel Felgenhauer opined in the Moscow Times, that the Kremlin's policy of controlling the Caucasus with handpicked local strongmen was "in tatters."

It turns out that the Russian military and security services, unreformed and notoriously corrupt, cannot defend our own allies. If Putin does not begin to change course immediately, more such disasters will follow and Russia's influence in the Caucasus will continue to wane.

Putin's first official act after the assassination on Sunday was to promote Kadryrov's son Ramzan to first deputy premier of Chechnya.

Under his father the son headed " a security force that many Chechens and human rights groups allege is responsible for abducting and abusing civilians," reports the Irish Examiner.

The appointment suggests that, at the very least, Putin is keeping open the option of a proxy strongman.

The Elections Committee of Chechnya must make a decision on the elections of the president of the republic not later than 14 days after early termination of powers of Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov, i.e. by May 23, 2004, reports RBC News Online.

The Chechen parliament is to make a decision on presidential elections but it has not been formed yet. Not more than 120 days must pass after termination of powers of the president of the republic, but not fewer than 80 days after the date of the elections has been announced, Veshnyakov noted. Early elections of the Chechen president must be held before September 5, 2004.

Also...
• Chechnya and Russia: A History of Conflict ( Deutsche Welle)
• A Long History of Chechen Terror Attacks ( Deutsche Welle)
• Latest Events May Bring More Volatility to Chechnya, say Experts ( Voice of America)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Jim Bencivenga .