Russia loses key Chechen ally

"Kadyrov made himself indispensible to the Kremlin," says Ms. Zvegelskaya. "He wasn't much loved or respected by the majority of Chechens, but there is no doubt that he imposed a kind of order in Chechnya. He did this by using violence, oppression and other very unpopular measures, but he was able to deliver stability. With him gone, the whole program is in crisis."

Kadyrov had been the target of frequent assassination plots in the past. At a religious festival in Chechnya last year, a female suicide bomber blew herself up after getting close to his entourage; she killed 14 other people but missed Kadyrov. Chechen officials told news agencies that Sunday's bomb eluded security checks because it had been installed inside the structure, beneath a layer of fresh concrete.

The Kremlin may have regarded Kadyrov as a "necessary transition figure" in the long, brutal march toward restoring peace and constitutional rule in Chechnya, Zvegelskaya says. "But now he's gone, and his work is, to say the least, unfinished," she adds.

Prime Minister Sergei Abramov, an ethnic Russian appointed by the Kremlin, will temporarily take over Kadyrov's duties, according to Russian news agencies. Mr. Abramov will be tasked with holding Kadyrov's administrative machine together and ensuring stability until the Kremlin can find a pro-Moscow Chechen with sufficient stature - and credibility among the republic's fractious clans - to take over.

Former President Aslan Maskhadov, elected in 1997 in the only Chechen vote ever recognized by the international community, could reemerge as a negotiating partner. However, that would require the Kremlin to reverse past refusals to deal with Mr. Maskhadov, a man they have branded a terrorist.

Analysts do not think Kadyrov's son, who has earned a reputation for cruelty, is a likely candidate.

"Whatever you can say about Kadyrov, he was a powerful figure," says Zvegelskaya. "Ramzan carries very little personal authority and could not realistically fill his father's shoes."

Speaking to Ramzan in the Kremlin Sunday, Putin hailed his father as a "heroic man" and pledged that "justice will take the upper hand and retribution [for Kadyrov's murder] is inevitable."

But some experts warn Chechnya could dissolve into chaos, with federal forces trying to crack down, Kadyrov's relatives seeking "blood revenge," and rebels moving to exploit the power vacuum. "This tragedy will probably lead to more violence, arrests, and pressure all around," says Zvegelskaya.

After putting all of its political eggs in the Kadyrov basket, the Kremlin may be at a loss to replace him. "The federal authorities invested so much in Kadyrov, and that makes the task of finding someone to take his place very difficult," says Mr. Tishkov. "The process of creating legitimacy may have to be started all over again."

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