Mexico-Cuba rift signals Latin realignment

Six months later, Fox suddenly replaced his ambassador to Cuba, Richard Pascoe, who then said that he anticipated a collapse in relations between the two nations. Since then, Mr. Pascoe says, Mexico has been looking for pretexts to break off relations with Cuba. "It's a very unfortunate situation. I think it damages the geopolitical and geostrategic position of Mexico in Latin America," Pascoe told the Mexican press. "It demonstrates a country and a government that's too servile to the interests of Washington."

Mexico's foreign minister, Luis Ernesto Derbez, vigorously denied that idea, calling it "insulting." Nevertheless, despite schisms following the 9/11 attacks and the US's decision to go to war in Iraq, a political synchronicity has developed between the two countries under Fox and Bush.

Indeed, the White House declared - to the embarrassment of Mexico - that Mexico would be voting against Cuba before Fox had announced how he'd vote. Fox quickly said Mexico was undecided, then preceded to vote as the US said it would two days later.

And on Monday, just hours after Mexico pulled its ambassador, Secretary of State Colin Powell defended Mexico's move and vigorously criticized Castro, saying he presumed to "challenge free and independent nations that made their own choice to properly condemn him and his regime for its actions." This week Mr. Powell submitted a 500-page report to President Bush that suggests ways to unseat Castro.

While the Fox administration may embrace US political views, many Mexicans do not. Tuesday, some 2,000 Mexicans marched in the capital waving Cuban flags and calling for Fox's resignation. "Cuba, yes! Yankees, no!" they shouted. "The Mexican people love Cuba!"

It is precisely this kind of domestic political schism, analysts say, that has led to the rise of leftist movements throughout the region.

Argentina's close relationship with the US in the 1990s indirectly led to a economic collapse that brought left-leaning Nestor Kirchner to the nation's presidency, only months after Brazil elected Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, a former union organizer. Each has worked to create a free trade area that doesn't include the US.

Ecuador, meanwhile, elected a leftist president last year, and in Bolivia the public overthrew a US-friendly president for the leader of a farmer's movement. In Venezuela - Cuba's strongest ally in the region and principal oil supplier - despite the huge push to unseat him (including a failed coup attempt hailed by the White House), President Hugo Chávez seems certain to win a recall vote.

Now with Mexico cutting ties to Cuba, the battle lines are more clearly drawn than ever before.

"Relations between the US and Latin America are at a dangerous low," says political analyst Andres Oppenheimer. "A return to the times of chaos and instability could convert itself into a serious problem for the national security of the United States."

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