A spike in apprehensions at border

After nearly four years of decline, apprehensions of undocumented immigrants crossing the US-Mexico border are rising sharply - which may indicate a new wave of illegal immigration.

The sudden spike is raising new concerns about homeland security, competition for American jobs, and worries of more deaths along the border. There is concern, too, that a flood of immigrants could stymie President Bush's plan, made public earlier this year, for a possible "guest worker" program: As migrants rush across simply on rumor, opposition to the Bush proposal could increase.

In the most recent six-month period, apprehensions along the roughly 2,000-mile southern border - one gauge of the level of illegal immigration - rose 25 percent over the same period a year ago. In some high-traffic areas, such as the Tucson sector, apprehensions were up 60 percent. Analysts see several - sometimes conflicting - reasons:

• Drought and economic hardship in many parts of Mexico are pushing more illegals to seek jobs in the US at a time when the US economy is finally starting to pick up.

• The president's proposal to give legal status to undocumented migrants already working in the US may be encouraging more to come, hoping for some amnesty in the future.

• Beefed-up border-patrol personnel, coupled with new technology, is leading to more arrests, which may or may not reflect a new wave of illegal immigration.

"We see it as a sign that the job's getting done," says Andy Adame, a spokesman for the Customs and Border Protection's Tucson sector.

Still, a quiet anxiety is brewing among government officials on both sides of the border, human-rights and immigrant advocates, and those who favor tougher immigration laws. The result is a rush to figure out what has changed and how to explain it during an election year. If the trend continues and fuels a backlash, Bush may be forced to reconsider his position on a possible guest-worker plan.

Traditionally, the number of apprehensions spikes in the first months of the year, when illegal immigrants return after spending the holidays with their families in Mexico. But the rush has not yet slowed, or even leveled off. And the jump could also herald a record year for migrant deaths - already higher than last year at this time.

For their part, officials at the US Customs and Border Protection say the reason the numbers are up is because of enhanced enforcement. One example: Along the Arizona border where the situation is most critical and thousands cross daily, an additional 200 officers have been added since last year. And more are coming.

Under a new $10 million initiative announced in March, the embattled Arizona border will receive another 110 agents, dozens of new motion detectors, four new helicopters, and the first-ever unmanned aircraft to patrol the desert.

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