Reality intrudes on US vision for Mideast

For Arabs, the settlement and return issues were the last vestige of daylight between American and Israeli policies. That Bush's words were followed up by an uptick in Israel's campaign of targeted killings against Palestinian leaders it deems terrorists strengthened the association. "The heightened violence by the Sharon government runs together with the violence in Iraq in the Arab mind - most Arabs see Fallujah becoming an iconic part of a broader resistance," says Mr. Hudson.

The immediate result is a blow to Mideast reforms, both because would-be promoters from outside are discredited, and because internal reforms, increasingly associated with the West, are suspect. "Bush will probably never again be seen by the Arabs as a credible mediator of peace, having so fully identified with the Sharon position," says Edward Walker, a former State Department official and now president of the Middle East Institute. "Countries in the region will be hard-pressed to cooperate with the administration on questions like reform, Iraq, and even terrorism as their populations react to their perception of this one-sided US position."

At the same time, pro-modernization Arabs are telling American contacts that domestic reform efforts are being hurt by an association with pressures from the US for change. Recent events have also cooled European enthusiasm for working with the US on Mideast reform - just as the US is acknowledging it needs more partners in Iraq and in the broader region. Even Bush's stalwart ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, has expressed frustration at the US drawing closer to Israel, while Europeans worry that the poor US image in the region could tarnish the work the EU has done in encouraging Arab reforms.

"The Europeans will have greater difficulty working with the Americans as they did before, when they all wanted the Americans in the driver's seat because that was the way progress in the region has been made," says the European official in Washington. "The problem is they [the Americans] just drove off in a certain direction, and we were not cautious enough."

On the other hand, the Europeans are conjecturing that what they see as the "Iraq mess" will have a humbling impact on US aims, and may lead to a more realistic approach to working with the Middle East. "The very deep troubles in Iraq have not only dampened the enthusiasm for big accomplishments there, but the situation has also led to a bigger gap between the euphoric [camp] and the ... realists, such as the State Department," the official says.

Given that State will take over authority in Iraq from the Pentagon on June 30 - and thus from the civilian officials who have been among the most enthusiastic about Mideast reform - is also seen as positive by some foreign officials. Still, a new caution towards the US on Mideast affairs is reflected in the role Secretary of State Colin Powell, once the great hope of foreign leaders, is seen to play these days. "Powell really is seen now as the tragic figure in all this," says the European official.

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