Politics returns to campuses

But there's some difficult news for Kerry in the findings as well. His support is extremely soft. In fact, 37 percent of those polled didn't know enough about him to form an opinion. That, says Eric Hoplin, a recent college graduate and national chairman of the College Republicans, is a clear indication "that this is a group that's in flux at the moment.

"By paying attention to them, not only is George Bush going to be able to win this demographic, ... he'll also win this election," says Mr. Hoplin on a cellphone from the road, where's he's spent the last month traveling from Pennsylvania to Minnesota to Ohio organizing and training students.

Six months ago, that might have seemed easier. The IOP poll then showed that more college students were identifying themselves as Republicans (31 percent) than Democrats (27 percent) - a surprising shift from the past. But the current poll found they've switched back, now more are now identifying themselves as Democrats (32 percent) than Republicans (24 percent). But most, 41 percent, call themselves as independents.

That's the group still up for grabs. Students like Greg Bugaj, an 18-year old Harvard freshman. As he sits at the Greenhouse Cafe, he says his views are more aligned with Kerry, but he'll probably vote for Bush. "I would support both abortion rights and gay marriage," he says. "But I see defense as the main issue."

Aside from gay marriage, an issue on which many young voters differ with Bush, there's another factor in the shift away from the president: Young people often reflect the mood of the country as a whole. During the Roosevelt administrations they were staunchly Democratic, but the time Eisenhower came around, more were identifying with the GOP.

"These young people are coming of political age when Bush is in some sense at his nadir in terms of his ratings," says Donald Green, an analyst at Yale University. "There is this sense of uneasiness ... about foreign affairs and the economy."

Elaine Jardin is another undecided independent. She's a freshman at University of Kansas who was out in the Midwestern spring air urging people to vote in the student senate elections. Her top concern before she makes her final decision is healthcare.

"I haven't always agreed with decisions made by the current administration," she says, and then adds a note of uncertainty about Kerry: "Promises are easy to make."

That pronounced sense of distrust is another quality that marks this generation of young people. They want to know that politicians will do what they say, and what they say is true. Combine that with the fact that the war in Iraq is their top concern, and researchers say it helps explain Bush's new trouble on campus.

So in addition to the campaigns raising campus issues from school loans to the war, students will be hearing plenty of the old time politics: Bush accusing Kerry of flip-flopping and Kerry accusing Bush of misleading the public. In the past, such negativity may have alienated many young voters. But this year, at least, Alissa Stollwerk is convinced that won't happen. "We need to do everything that we can to turn out every vote that we can," she says, heading into her dorm. "And we will."

• Leita Walker in Kansas and Elizabeth Armstrong in Boston contributed to this report.

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