Iraq violence tests coalition unity

strategist. "Each of those governments must be feeling a chill up their political spine right now," says Captain Seaquist. "None want their people - the Arab 'street' - out in the streets demonstrating in sympathy with their Iraqi brethren. Loss of support by these governments could be equally as serious as the uprising inside the country."

The attacks on coalition forces, as well as several kidnappings of foreigners in recent days, seem aimed at shaking the will of coalition partners.

"If the insurgency drags on and the allies continue to take casualties, we will have to watch carefully the reactions of the governments and publics in allied countries," says retired US Army officer Michael Peters of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Leaders in some coalition countries, Japan, Poland, and Italy among them, have asserted their continuing support. But they are under pressure at home.

A recent Associated Press poll found that nearly two-thirds of people in Japan believe that the war in Iraq has increased the threat of terrorism worldwide. The same poll found that most people in Britain, Canada, France, Italy, Germany, Mexico, and Spain hold the same belief.

In his trip to Japan and South Korea this week, Vice President Dick Cheney will try to buck up those key coalition members - particularly South Korea, where troop deployment to Iraq has become a key issue in upcoming parliamentary elections.

South Korea has about 460 medics and military engineers in Nasiriyah and plans to increase its troop levels to 3,600.

Some observers say the best hope is for coalition military forces to remain, but for them to come under a UN mandate and report to the UN Security Council.

"The advantage of transforming the military component from a US to a UN mandate, which would require a new UN resolution, is that it might induce countries to stay in, stay involved, and attract new contributions from those who have declined so far, such as India, France, and Germany," says retired US Army Col. Dan Smith. "I don't think a separate force to protect UN workers, as the administration has proposed, will work because it would complicate the command structure as happened in Somalia and as is happening in Afghanistan right now."

Others don't put much hope in the UN playing a strong role in securing peace, reconciliation, and reconstruction.

"Fanciful notions about the UN taking over founder on its weak performance in past conflicts," says military analyst Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute.

"In a sense, America is on its own," says Dr. Thompson. "It is the only country with the military resources and resolve to see this through."

Despite increased levels of fighting, some observers think too much can be made of coalition unity.

"No one has left the admittedly rather weak coalition yet, and hunkering down is something we've been inclined to try ourselves at times," says analyst Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution. "So I'd counsel against excessive angst about the coalition."

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