US options in dealing with a widening war

"The problem at this moment is that it is unclear whether this is the last gasp of a small guerrilla group, or the opening move in a proxy war with Iran," says John Pike, director of GlobalSecurity.org. Sadr reportedly is being supported by Iran (a largely Shiite country) and the terrorist group Hizbollah, which was started in Iran and now is based in Lebanon.

"In the short term, the only option is to engage the enemy when and where he can be found," says Mr. Pike. "In the midterm, the process of Iraqification needs to continue and the US needs to do more to support the development of civil society."

"The reconstruction contracting mess needs to be straightened out" as well, says Pike. While some analysts and members of Congress raise the specter of a Vietnam-like "quagmire," others say failure would more likely resemble Israel's 37-year experience occupying Palestinian territory. Indeed, some insurgents have been describing the events of the past week as an "intifada."

"If the current situation unravels, the US military will be faced with its own version of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank, where military action to suppress the insurgency creates more new insurgents and an endless cycle of violence," warns defense analyst Charles Penã of the Cato Institute in Washington.

US officials insist that they will not allow this to happen.

"As President Bush has said, we did not charge hundreds of miles into the heart of Iraq and pay a bitter cost of casualties [635 US military deaths and 2,988 wounded so far] to liberate 25 million people, only to retreat before a band of thugs and assassins," Secretary Rumsfeld said this week. "We're facing a test of will, and we will meet that test."

Many members of Congress - Democrats and Republicans alike - have urged the administration to increase the number of US troops in Iraq, which would reverse current plans to reduce US force levels.

Confirming that this is a possibility - at least in the short term - the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of StaffGen. Richard Myers says some troops scheduled to be rotated back to the US may be ordered to stay beyond one year, even as fresh troops move in to replace them.

That ultimately will be decided by Army Gen. John P. Abizaid, commander of US military operations in the Persian Gulf region.

Others note the need to strengthen and bolster what looks like an increasingly tenuous US-led coalition, many nations of which have proven to be inneffective militarily. Ukrainian forces, for example, withdrew from the area they were meant to secure and a Bulgarian unit called for US backup.

"The coalition is beginning to weaken," says retired Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner. "Singapore troops returned home this week. Norway has said it is going to focus on peacekeeping in other parts of the world.

South Korea is sending a team this week to reassess the situation. Portugal seems to be weakening.

"Like Vietnam, it's not that it was not possible to be successful, but the question is whether or not we are willing to pay the price," says Colonel Gardiner. "The price for Iraq has just gone up."

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