Would the world allow another genocide?

But many are skeptical that the global response would be different today. "If it all happened again, it would all happen again," says Gerald Caplan, the Canadian author of "Rwanda: The Preventable Genocide."

Indeed, there are plenty of signs of continued global indifference.

A small but symbolic one is the guest list for Wednesday's commemoration ceremonies in Kigali. The UN's Mr. Annan won't attend. Neither will a top American official such as Secretary of State Colin Powell. Rather, the US is sending its mid-level ambassador for war crimes, Pierre-Richard Prosper. Also on the guest list, Sudanese President Omar el-Bashir, who is, says one UN official, presiding over ethnic cleansing in western Sudan.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame testily raised another issue earlier this week as he accused the world of a "deliberate and convenient" failure to help stop genocide. "Do the powerful nations have a hidden agenda?" he pondered. "I would hate to believe this agenda is dictated by racist considerations or the color of the skin."

Whether the agenda is based on racism or other factors, many observers agree that black Africa has had little geostrategic cachet. But with up to 25 percent of US oil expected to be flowing from Africa within 10 years, that's starting to change.

Meanwhile, Rwanda's experience with genocide has, at least, given observers a better understanding of how such mass killings can begin. One of the central lessons: "Genocide never happens in exactly the same way," says Mr. Smith of Aegis.

While the world was braced to prevent a resurgence of concentration camps aimed at exterminating Jews, it wasn't ready for other methods of mass killings that have emerged instead.

Yet there are common warning signs, say experts. One is government training of militias. In 1994, Rwanda's notorious Interahamwe gangs were trained and armed by the government.

Today in Uganda, President Yoweri Museveni has recently been arming civilian militias to combat the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA). Some Ugandan religious leaders have raised alarms about potential ethnic cleansing of the Acholi people, who live in LRA areas and sometimes support them.

For more than a year in Sudan, the government has reportedly been arming Arab militias in their fight against rebel African tribes. The militias have been systematically robbing and raping civilians, according to a recent Human Rights Watch report.

The UN's top official in Sudan recently charged the militias with "ethnic cleansing." Will such strong words have an impact? "It's possible it will result in a more robust response," says John Prendergast of the International Crisis Group in Washington, "But so far it's rhetorical."

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