A pitched battle for state legislatures

"The majority party in any legislature has control of the agenda in a profound way," says Elizabeth Garrett, political scientist at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles. "They control what versions of bills get voted on, and what opening negotiations are between governor and legislators."

The redistribution of power could have profound reverberations for many states. In North Carolina, a shift of four seats in the senate would give the GOP control of both chambers, and with it a likely mandate to cut education funding.

A fiscal crisis in North Carolina has led to a large number of cutbacks and increasing pressure on the legislature to raise taxes. Experts say a win by the GOP could mean a drawback in funding for public education.

"Whenever political competition is so close, it brings the prominence of those sorts of neighborly issues in the various counties to the kitchen tables," says Jack Fleer, a political science professor emeritus at Wake Forest University.

That could be the case in Maine, where the state's Democratic governor is fighting to cap taxes while proposing major cuts in health services. If the Republicans win control of the Senate, in which they currently hold a one-seat minority, the legislature will likely support the governor's proposal.

"It will likely bolster the governor's pledge to keep taxes status quo," says Amy Fried, a political science professor at the University of Maine in Orono.

Face-offs in such states with razor-thin margins mean higher-stakes for both national and state party machinery, more in-your-face politicking for voters, an increase in money spent, and more ubiquitous advertisements from billboards to television.

Such races could become even more heated where controversial social issues are under debate. A victory of two seats in Indiana's House would give the GOP control of the entire legislature as well as of the governor's office.

If they control both chambers, Republicans are likely to pass an amendment to Indiana's state constitution banning gay marriage, a vote that was recently blocked by the Democratic House Speaker.

"I don't think there's a doubt in the world that the GOP would pass this amendment if they get control," says Marjorie Hershey, a political scientist at Indiana University in Bloomington.

Such local issues could also bring out the voters needed to push Bush or Kerry over the top in the airtight races of battleground states.

"In the Florida vote for president in 2000, Republicans in some counties were out in force because of local issues from sheriff to state legislature," says Larry Sabato, a government professor at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville. "Those same voters, because they were already at the polls to vote for local concerns, put Bush over the top to win Florida and the national election."

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