The Arnold Effect: Senate race tests his coattails

By nearly all accounts, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is pumping up public enthusiasm in the Golden State. Voter approval is high as Republicans gush and one-time doubters concede that the Hollywood muscleman's gleaming teeth brightened the fiscal gloom, too.

Now, an important litmus test of California's new Republican possibilities is under way: the Senate race between former Secretary of State Bill Jones and Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer.

Praised by Republicans but largely unknown to Independents and Democrats, Jones is a leading Republican here and the overwhelming victor in the GOP's March primary. In a state that's cast off many moderates in primaries, Jones - conservative but not far right - was a vocal supporter and campaigner in Schwarzenegger's race. The Republicans that California Democrats find among the most palatable - Schwarzenegger and Sen. John McCain of Arizona - endorse Jones, too.

The fact that Senator Boxer faces a challenge amplifies the question of whether the GOP can stage a Schwarzenegger-led comeback. From now through November's presidential election, analysts say, that's the story to watch: whether the governor's coattails will be as broad as his smile and whether Republicans - whose fortunes have long sagged here - and President Bush himself can ride Schwarzenegger's honeymoon train. Is the movie star's popularity strictly personal, they ask, or a harbinger of further expansion among Republicans promoting his formula for social tolerance and fiscal conservatism?

"There is no question California is enjoying a new era of enthusiasm and possibility because of its historic recall election," says Steven Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn. "The question is, is this a new era of Republican possibilities or does it go no further than [Schwarzenegger's] popularity?"

To be sure, Boxer has a loyal following, and with over 1 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, she has a clear advantage - though Republicans say they'll register half a million new voters by November. Though more liberal than most senators, she's a national figure and is considered a formidable campaigner.

For his part, Jones is an eight-year assemblyman and eight-year secretary of state, author of the controversial "three strikes, you're out" law that became a national model. The former rancher and businessman won a second term as secretary of state in 1998 with the endorsement of nearly every major state newspaper. He's considered a specialist in agriculture, trade, and water issues and has received national attention for tightening voting laws.

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