China silent on Taiwan election

Should Chen govern another four years, insiders here worry, the world community could begin to gradually and wrongly apply liberal assumptions to the cross-Straits dispute.

"The election is a Pandora's Box of poison gas," says a Beijing academic. "Chen Shui-bian can only succeed by promoting a national identity for Taiwan. Since he says he can't stop doing this, he is creating big trouble for China."

Tsinghua University professor Yan Xuetong stated in a Singapore paper recently that pressure for Taiwan independence is "steadily growing," and assumptions are rife that "it is possible to have independence without a war - so our only hope is the PLA" [People's Liberation Army]. Mr. Yan recommended a "military action that should be more than a military exercise," if Taiwan holds more referendums, or goes ahead with a proposed constitution that deletes language from the current 1950s-era Constitution about "One China."

Despite a paucity of information about life and culture in Taiwan, the roots of the Chinese passion for the island run deep. Nationalist historians speak of China's 5,000 year history of ethnic unity, including Taiwan - though outside scholars dispute claims of an uninterrupted territorial Han identity. "The emperors didn't care about islands," says a European scholar. "They cared about the continent, about problems in Manchuria. Not until Mao [in 1949] was there a steady demand to 'liberate' Taiwan."

On Internet chat rooms, and even among Beijing intellectuals, Taiwan is spoken of using the language of family. Some call Taiwan a "runaway cousin." An Internet posting refers to China as a father, and Taiwan as a disobedient son. "The father must discipline the son, and do it now," the "netizen" said. A Beijing scholar said that "in a divorce, both husband and wife must agree. We do not agree."

Experts say China has practical problems with a permanently "renegade" Taiwan. Beijing is concerned about separatist tendencies in Tibet and Xinjiang. Also, Taiwan has been so long held up as an object of unification, that should it be "lost," party legitimacy could be undermined, experts say.

The robust national identity movement in Taiwan that played out in last week's election is not lost on all Chinese. A new-old rationale has already begun to emerge in Beijing circles that purports to explain it: foreign influences. "Taiwan's identity movement has been manipulated by foreign powers, the Americans, and the Japanese," says a leading scholar. "The young people in Taiwan have forgotten their history," says a member of a leading party think tank in Beijing. "They have been influenced by the Americans."

A similar rationale is on offer to explain the new democracy movement in Hong Kong.

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