Tug-of-war for Taiwan's identity

"The consensus is that we are Taiwanese first and Chinese second," says a government official with strong Kuomintang sympathies. "The Taiwanese identity is growing every day, and the change is not reversible. About 50 percent now claim they are Taiwanese only, while only 10 percent say they are Chinese only."

Yet if the DPP is viewed as the party of reform, the KMT has been undercutting that position by suggesting that its leaders have more experience, and will give Taiwan reform - but in a moderate way. They have painted Chen as extreme and unstable. With Taiwan's economy in the doldrums, moreover, they are drumming on a need for change.

"I'm voting for the KMT this time, and the DPP in 2008," says the Taiwanese-born CEO of a food company in Taipei. "By then, we will be tired of the KMT."

DPP braintrusts say the election is a crucial turning point, because a restored KMT would collude with Beijing to slow reforms and create an irreversible economic dependency on China. In recent years, Taiwan's mainland investments make up 45 percent of its economy.

Despite huge campaign rallies and much pomp and circumstance, some Taiwanese feel a deep reticence. For example, Tim Chen, a businessman in Taipei, says that while the ethnic identity issue has gained strength, it no longer "cuts it with me anymore.

"The election is turning into Taiwan vs. China. Everything is simplified, and the cast of characters is the same."

Annette Lu is one of Asia's most outspoken politicians, and Taiwan's first female vice president. Her anti-Beijing rhetoric greatly offends China, and some in Taiwan.

"This election will solve the most controversial issue in Taiwan, namely, national identification. After the Feb. 28 rally [of 2 million to 3 million people] no one can doubt the solidarity of the Taiwanese people. Even the opposition can't eject it. It is the people's will to identify as Taiwanese more than Chinese...."

"China's negativity about the DPP is simply because they are ashamed of our having a democracy. They don't allow their people to choose their leaders, or to decide national policy. They are embarrassed, and afraid of democracy.

"If the DPP loses, Beijing may be excited for awhile. But if we do, it will be a chance to reform ourselves...."

"If a referendum can be held in Taiwan successfully, sooner or later people in Hong Kong may ask [for one.] Then the communist regime will collapse."

• Caitrin McKiernan contributed to this report from Taipei.

Interviews with veep candidates

China-born James Soong is vice president on the opposition ticket. A maverick and rising star, Mr. Soong left the KMT in 2000 to set up his own party, but rejoined forces with the KMT last year.

"In the long term we must emphasize direct links with China; We cannot ignore the growing economic power taking place in China. We want no unilateral change of the status quo, and we should emphasize no timetable.... China needs time to change...."

"The referendum is not key ... the questions are unnecessary. Even if we have the desire to remove all obstacles to peace between [China and Taiwan], we still must maintain a minimum and adequate defense capability. So we very much hope the US continues to honor its [defense] commitment...."

"We have already developed a strong sense of identity as Chinese and as Taiwanese. And for that we are different from the citizens of the PRC [People's Republic of China]: We are citizens of China, not the PRC. But the DPP is trying to mix the national identity with the local identity. They try to identify themselves with the land instead of the political system."

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