Much more than capture of Al Qaeda's number 2

As the world awaits to see if Pakistani troops indeed capture or kill Ayman Al Zawahri in a remote corner of the Afghan-Pakistan border, three broader developments should not go overlooked.

• Whether or not Zawahri is captured, the tribal lands between Pakistan and Afghanistan are no longer a secure redoubt from which terrorists can plan, train, or simply hide. By sending in more than 7,000 elite troops, and coordinating this incursion with US military forces across the border in Afghanistan, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf has signaled to autonomous tribal leaders his intent to change tribal customs that date to Alexander the Great.

• While the US would love to take out Osama Bin Laden and his right-hand man, the focus of the war on terror has not shifted. The objective remains: attacking a network, not an individual. "The capture of one man is not going to destroy Al Qaeda," National Security Advisor Condolezza Rice told a press conference Friday morning. It's a terror network, and that is what the US is intent on destroying.

• Terror cells, whether tightly or loosely linked to Al Qaeda, will continue to seek out targets of opportunity. The hugely destructive bombing of commuter trains in Madrid represents a new stage, an evolution in tactics by terror cells with a high degree of autonomy to single out timely and strategic soft targets in Europe.

"The West would still confront a group committed to carrying out its war - one that has shown deftness at reconstituting itself. Moreover, bin Laden's removal could lead to retaliatory strikes," writes The Christian Science Monitor earlier this week.

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Events went critical when Musharraf told CNN Thursday that his troops, on maneuver in the Connecticut-sized province of Wahiristan along the Afghan border, "may have a high-value target. I can't say who."

By doing so writes the Washington Times , he announced to the world that he had done "something few Pakistani leaders have done: He sent thousands of troops inside the vast, ungoverned border areas with Afghanistan to attack Al Qaeda and Taliban militants."

The introduction of Pakistani troops, plus pressure from US forces on the Afghan side - what military strategists refer to as a hammer and anvil operation - resulted in better intelligence, flushing Al Qaeda out in the open.

Pakistan and the US - solidifying a strategic alliance

Beyond the tactical outcome of this joint operation (obviously capturing the number-two man would be a "major blow" to Al Qaeda says Rice), it more than hints at a solidifying of an intricate alliance between Pakistan and the US in South Asia.

The Chicago Sun Times says, nowhere was this more clear than when Secretary of State Colin Powell on Thursday:

Brushed aside criticism of Pakistan's handling of a black market nuclear proliferation network and the US response to it. Powell said A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani scientist who smuggled nuclear secrets to North Korea, Iran and Libya, 'is essentially secluded in his home, and he is not going to be running this network any more.' He called the dismantling of Khan's network 'a major achievement.'

Of even more significance for long-term relations between the two countries and the strategic balance in the region where India and China must be factored into the equation, Powell went on to announce that the US will elevate its military relationship with Pakistan as a major ally outside of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

The Asia Times says this designates Pakistan a "...military ally of the United States for the purpose of future military-to-military relations, facilitating its acquisition of military hardware. The tangible military benefits will include priority delivery of the US military's 'excess defense articles'."

It is a clear reward for Musharraf's willingness "not only to do a lot of heavy lifting to capture or kill the top Al Qaeda leadership, but also for risking the very stability of his country by getting so close to Washington," writes Ehsan Ahrari, a US-based independent strategic analyst in a commentary in Asia Times. For Ahrari, it opens up an entirely new dimension in the region's strategic relations.

India will not be appreciative of any changes in Pakistan's status in conventional arms. That is an area where India has assiduously built up its own superiority for the past 40 years. Beijing, for its part, does not want to lose Pakistan as a key partner in keeping India off balance in the Sino-Indian rivalry. Unbeknownst to Washington, by elevating Pakistan's status as a key ally, it has started a new era of strategic realignment, or at least a major reassessment toward a potential realignment. All in all, such a reassessment is not at all unwelcome, especially since it guarantees the role of the United States as a long-term balancer in South Asia.

Also...
• Profile of Ayman al-Zawahri ( MSNBC News)
• Afghan connection future & past expeditions ( Geo Vision)
• Precious stones fuel fight against Taliban ( ABC News)
• US speaks softly to Pakistan, carries big 'get Osama' stick ( The Christian Science Monitor)

• Feedback appreciated. E-mail Jim Bencivenga .