Why catching bin Laden is difficult

"Of all the intelligence that is given to the Americans by their colleagues, perhaps only 20 percent of it is correct," says Samiullah Qatra, commander of the Afghan border police. "And you might have realized that most of the problems in Afghanistan emanate from tribal rivalries and monetary gain."

US officials with ties to the intelligence community admit that the war in Afghanistan is a difficult game for the high-tech Western spy agencies.

"We're kind of losing there," says a senior US official in Washington, with knowledge of intelligence operations. "I just think it's very, very difficult to do anything with 10,000 troops in some of the world's highest mountains in a place the size of Texas."

But American politicians and the media need to get realistic about what the CIA and other American operatives can do in Afghanistan, this senior official adds. "People who talk about blaming the intelligence services for not getting assets in that area don't know what they're talking about - it's like sending a white-skinned guy to penetrate an Indian reservation."

Yet penetrating that tribal society, and finding out which tribe is harboring Taliban leaders - and Osama bin Laden - is the name of the game. For this, the US official says, US intelligence agents and special forces are hoping for a break.

"What do they think - that [bin Laden] will be sitting in a rocking chair inside a cave waiting for us to pull up?" says the official. "It will be pure serendipity if we get him. He'll zig; we'll zag and there we'll both be and we'll see who wins."

Such chance encounters have reportedly happened before. A French general said Monday that French troops working with US forces in Afghanistan have come close to capturing bin Laden. "On several occasions, I even think that he slipped out of a net that was well closed," Gen. Henri Bentegeat told France's Europe-1 radio.

But getting advance notice about Al Qaeda's movements is likely to be nearly impossible, suggests Mr. Qatra. "When I was a guerrilla against the Soviets, I would never visit home for more than two hours. If my family asked me which road I was taking, I would tell them the wrong direction. I did that to protect myself, because maybe the intelligence people would put pressure on my family."

"It's not only me that used these tactics, Mullah Omar and Osama bin Laden also fought during that time," Mr. Qatra adds. And it would be difficult to send a spy to infiltrate the inner ranks of either bin Laden or Mullah Omar. "They are surrounding themselves only with people who are 100 percent reliable. The people they don't trust will be kept far away."

On a visit to Kabul Wednesday, US Secretary of State Colin Powell reiterated the US commitment to the fight and to rebuilding Afghanistan. "The United States is in this for the long haul. [Afghans] don't have to hope we will be here. We will be here," he said.

On the other side of the border, Pakistan has made gains against Al Qaeda and Taliban forces hiding in the tribal belt. An intense firefight Tuesday left at least 15 Pakistani paramilitary forces and 24 suspected Al Qaeda fugitives dead.

The US has made some strides in finding the enemy, according to Gen. Hilaluddin Hilal, Afghanistan's deputy minister of interior. The US is "getting better and better, and they have had big successes," including raids in Deh Chopan in Zabul Province, Maruf and Spin Boldak in Kandahar Province, Bahgran valley in Helmand Province, and a few operations in Paktia and Khost provinces. In these operations, US intelligence agents and Army Special Forces were able to detect Taliban commanders and take them out.

"In the beginning, they just wanted to act very fast, they didn't want to analyze the information first," says General Hilal. "Now they are thinking more profoundly, checking their information with many more sources."

If the US and its allies succeed in nabbing bin Laden, there's no guarantee the wider war on terror will be won. One former US intelligence officer with experience in Central Asia says the problem with the current war on terrorism is its concept of the enemy, Al Qaeda.

"We've somehow made this sound like a big company, run with a CEO and branch offices everywhere. Mostly these are national religious movements. And they do coordinate, they're like-minded, they agree on world views. But do they take orders?"

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