An election so nasty, so soon

Neither Sandy Hunt nor Kathy Griffin likes nasty political ads. Indeed, both are already "horrified" by the hostile tone of this year's presidential campaign.

But no matter how unpleasant it gets, both small-business executives plan to vote Nov. 2. The threat of terrorism and troubled state of the economy have made politics central to them as never before.

But there's also another dynamic at play - the polarizing nature of the Bush presidency. Ms. Hunt is determined to vote for George Bush because she doesn't like the feeling that people have a "vendetta" against him. Ms. Griffin is just as adamant about supporting John Kerry because "Bush is a runaway train ... and I feel very strongly about stopping him."

Their comments reflect a truism about campaign 2004: Even though the election has turned nasty earlier than any in modern history, experts predict voters will remain engaged in the political process - and probably go to the polls in large numbers.

While negative campaigns often dampen voter turnout, analysts believe the election this time around is different. Voters, already, are unusually engaged.

"The stakes are high and the country is incredibly polarized," says Darrell West, a political scientist at Brown University in Providence, R.I. "People don't like the negativity and by November they're going to hate both candidates, but they're still going to vote."

Indeed, pollster John Zogby puts it, it's an "armageddon campaign," because each side claims the election of the other would mean "the end of the world."

At least since World War II, the incumbent at this stage of an election campaign is usually sitting in the White House Rose Garden above the political fray. He doesn't step out and lower himself to politics until at least the summer, allowing him to maintain the aura of wisdom, power, and dignity that comes with the Oval Office.

And his challenger usually isn't chosen until much later in the spring. Then he takes a little time off to recover from the primaries and restock his war chest. The combined dynamic gives country a rest from politics.

But these are clearly not usual times. With the Democrats' front-loaded primary schedule, John Kerry is already the presumed nominee. And with polls showing him either even or just ahead of President Bush, the Republican stepped out of the garden last week and stunned pundits by going directly on the attack, accusing his Democratic rival of being weak on national security and threatening to raise taxes.

And Kerry, determined not to be defined by his Republican rival as he steps in earnest onto the national stage, struck back just as forcefully, accusing the President of misleading the country with negative ads "once again."

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