In race for Congress, terrain favors GOP

While the race for the White House may go down to the wire, political handicappers are writing off prospects for Democrats to take back either the Senate or the House.

The key, experts say, is terrain: Democrats are defending five open seats - all in the South, their weakest region. And redistricting has given Republicans a powerful edge in districts they must hold in the House.

On paper, Democrats don't have far to go. A turnover of just two seats would flip control in the Senate and a dozen would do so in the House. But the battleground states and districts tend to be on harsh political ground for Democrats - a sign that what counts in today's politics, as in real estate, is location, location, location.

"It's very hard to see Democrats making gains. There are too many open seats, and where there are open seats they are in red [Republican-leaning] states," says pollster John Zogby of Zogby International. The road will be toughest in the House, where GOP-engineered redistricting in states like Texas and Georgia has set the stage for what some call an "institutionalized victory."

Democrats, to be sure, aren't giving up. They argue that message may yet trump terrain in Election 2004. If President Bush's numbers continue to slide, and the presidential race morphs into a referendum on jobs, as Democrats hope, it could change the dynamics in battleground states and districts, they say.

"As far as I'm concerned, the conventional wisdom about '04 is slipping. The national mood is with our candidates," says Jon Corzine, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC). He cites polls showing that Democrats are gaining ground on issues such as healthcare, education, and jobs and the economy.

An example of a race that Democrats hope will turn on jobs is Colorado, where the surprise retirement of Republican Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, announced March 3, gave Democrats an opening they had not expected. In 2000, Mr. Bush outpolled the combined scores of Vice President Gore and Ralph Nader in Colorado by 8 percent. But the state has a lost 91,600 jobs since Bush took office, says Senator Corzine, who has recruited Rutt Bridges, a software entrepreneur millionaire with deep pockets, into the race. US Rep. Mark Udall is also considering a run for the open seat.

Democrats cite Oklahoma, Illinois, and Alaska as other "prime-time pickups." They also see "serious opportunities" in Missouri, Kentucky, and also in Pennsylvania, where incumbent GOP Sen. Arlen Specter is in a divisive primary slug out with conservative Rep. Pat Toomey. If the primary draws Pennsylvania's GOP nominee too far to the right, Democrats have a good shot at picking up that seat.

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