A pivotal moment for defining Kerry

The 2004 election may be eight months away. But the already sharp jockeying between President Bush and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry underscores a fundamental reality: These first rounds are likely to set the course - and potentially even determine the outcome - of the whole campaign.

Much of the race so far has focused on the president, with Democrats lobbing criticism at Mr. Bush rather than each other throughout the primary season. The attacks have had a clear impact, with most polls now showing Bush trailing Senator Kerry.

But Bush is working hard to shift attention to his challenger, engaging him unusually early in a calculated effort to define the Massachusetts senator before he can define himself. Indeed, while strategists on both sides agree that reelection campaigns are ultimately about rehiring or firing the incumbent, almost as central to the equation is how voters feel about the candidate trying to replace him. And although voters ostensibly will have plenty of time to get to know the Massachusetts senator, early impressions often prove the most important - and lasting.

"Kerry first has to make the case that the president should not be rehired, but he also has to make the case that he's an acceptable alternative," says Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist from Georgia. "And that means he's got to do more than pound on the president."

Already, Bush is moving swiftly to cast his opponent as a pro-tax, anti-defense-spending liberal with a tendency to waffle on issues. But while Kerry has been quick to respond, leaving no attack unanswered, he's been slower to define himself in positive terms. Part of the problem is a lack of cash. Bush, sitting on a record war chest, went on the air last week with his first ads (message: "Steady leadership in a time of change"), and is likely to unveil negative spots targeting Kerry in coming weeks.

In what may be a glimpse of themes to come, an outside group began running an anti-Kerry ad over the weekend, highlighting the senator's expensive haircuts, his homes, and his yacht, and concluding: "Another rich liberal elitist from Massachusetts who claims he's a man of the people. Priceless."

By contrast, Kerry is currently relying almost entirely on ads by outside groups - who can criticize Bush and his policies, but are unable to promote Kerry explicitly - while he gears up for a fundraising push.

Kerry's challenge has also been heightened by the nominating process, which allowed him to emerge earlier and with much less scrutiny than most nominees. Although he received a flood of media coverage during the height of the primary battle, particularly in contested states, analysts say he remains largely unknown in many of the states holding primaries after the competition was effectively over - such as Florida, whose primary Tuesday was essentially a foregone conclusion.

Page: 1 | 2