Stark contrasts for a fall classic

And while the Bush campaign may portray Kerry as evasive, Democrats are firing back at the president's credibility - hitting him, particularly, on the failure to discover weapons of mass destruction in Iraq. These attacks have already taken a toll, with polls showing more members of the public questioning Bush's trustworthiness.

Current polls show Kerry tied with or beating Bush. But Bush has only just begun to campaign - airing his first ads of the season this week - and will have record sums of money at his disposal over the next eight months. Currently, Kerry remains largely unknown to many voters, making the fight to define him critical over the next eight months.

Still, both sides agree the election will be a referendum on Bush's four years in office, with the economy and the iraq war dominating the debate, though cultural issues such as gay marriage could also play a key role. And most see the contest coming down to a handful of battleground states - with the rest of the country immovably fixed in "red" or "blue" territory. The most critical states may be those where cultural leanings tend to give Bush an edge, but where the loss of manufacturing jobs has caused serious economic pain and could ultimately boost Kerry.

"There are a few states that are really, truly in play," says independent pollster Del Ali. "It will come down to the economy in New Hampshire, West Virginia, Ohio. If voters are ambivalent, the bottom line is, Kerry wins the race. If voters are confident about [the economy], Bush ekes it out."

To some, the fact that so few states are likely to be competitive may work to lessen the ideological contrast, as both candidates move to the middle to try to win over the swing voters who could determine the overall outcome.

"The stakes really come down to the middle," says Democratic pollster Peter Hart. Both parties have to work at turning out their bases, he acknowledges, but ultimately, "it will be the same kinds of counties and voters that decide it that decided [every recent election]."

But others argue the two candidates are already locked in a clash that will inevitably be polarized around cultural and policy differences - and personal style.

The differences can be noted "just by looking at geography," says Mr. Ali. "Kerry is from possibly the most Democratic state and Bush from the most Republican state."

Indeed, many see the contest as a replay of the 2000 election - only more contentious. The fact that Kerry won the Democratic nomination "defines the Democratic Party as liberal on virtually every aspect of American politics," says Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University. On the other hand, he adds, Bush "is not as popular as he was two years ago."

• David T. Cook contributed to this report from Washington.

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