NASCAR dads - now you see them, now you don't

Considering all the questions about NASCAR dads, what's everyone fighting over? Can a candidate really aim to carry the whole vote of such a massive thing? No. The fight will take place around the fringes, in the subgroups of the demographic.

Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who coined the term "NASCAR dad" last year, says the goal for her party isn't to win the entire fan base, but to "pick off 10 to 15 percent of them." In her mind, "them" means white males, 35 to 55, in the blue-collar jobs most vulnerable in the current economy. "If we can do that, we can make it very difficult for the president to put together a winning coalition. These voters aren't just in the South, they are all over. They can tip states," she says.

The real race for the NASCAR dad vote might best be understood by asking whether NASCAR dad is defined by the "NASCAR" side of the equation, or the "dad" side. The president wants, as much as possible, to bind the vote together by its NASCARness, by its red- America culture. He served in the National Guard, he likes speed, he's a race fan - just like a NASCAR dad. The Democrats want to exploit the cleavages that exist within a group of millions of people. They believe John Kerry's military service neutralizes national defense and allows them to say, "Sure, you like racing, but if you're a blue collar dad, isn't job security more important?"

The election is a long way off, but to listen to race fans here, the Democrats have a shot. The Rock didn't exactly hold a politically charged atmosphere last weekend. Despite the "proud to be an American" feel - the Army, Navy and National Guard all sponsor cars - asking about politics got lots of blank looks and guys saying they don't plan to vote.

There were definitely a lot of Bush supporters in attendance. "I'm sticking with the president," said one 40-something former Navy man. "He did the right thing in Iraq and we can't change leaders now."

But you could also hear some doubts about Mr. Bush. NASCAR Nation may, overall, be reliable Bush country, but he faces a real issue with some of these voters - the economy, which all, for and against the president, cited as a serious problem.

"This is a poor area. We haven't gotten a lot of benefit from Republican policies," said a middle-aged state employee. He voted for Harry Browne, the Libertarian candidate in 2000, because he "just didn't like" Al Gore. But he plans to vote Democratic this year.

And one middle-agedman who voted for Bush in 2000 said he didn't plan to this time: "Usually in a war, the rich pay more taxes to help offset the burden. Why not this time?"

One fan, told that he's part of this year's celebrity demographic and his vote is thought to be a sure thing for Republicans, laughed: "Not the fans I know. But I guess it all depends on where the race is happening."

Here in Richmond County, people love NASCAR, but unemployment is over 9 percent. To many, that's more important.

It many not be how many race fans there are, but how many Richmond Counties.

So, yes, Virginia - and Maryland and Massachusetts - there are NASCAR dads. Like most American subcultures however, they're subject to fragmentation. It's not NASCAR dads. It's white collar and blue collar NASCAR dads. Northern and Southern NASCAR dads. When you look at all the variables, fragmentation isn't just possible, it's probable. And as long as times stay hard for a good portion of them, the president is going to find them hard to bind together.

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