New wild card: Nader joins race

Ralph Nader has sent a frisson of anxiety through the Democratic Party by announcing he will run for president. Four years ago, the consumer advocate took nearly 3 percent of the vote in a historically close election, and faced blame from some Democrats for tipping the race to George W. Bush.

This time around, the political climate is vastly different: Rank and file Democrats want, above all else, to unseat President Bush, and are in no mood to send signals about party policies by supporting a third-party candidate. In recent weeks, websites such as RalphDontRun.net and RepentantNaderVoter.com have appeared, trying to prevent a rerun of 2000.

Democratic leaders, too, are averse to taking chances in this year's vote, and put off by Nader's candidacy. "I don't want Ralph Nader's legacy [to be] that he got George Bush for eight years in this country," Democratic national chair Terry McAuliffe said on CNN. Mr. McAuliffe met with Nader several times to try to persuade him not to run.

Nader starts his new campaign from a weaker position than he did four years ago. He turned down an offer from the Green Party to run as its presidential candidate, and thus is forgoing a built-in network of supporters who could have helped with funds and foot soldiers. His late start will make it difficult to gather the thousands of signatures needed to get his name on state ballots.

But, speaking Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press," Nader dismissed the efforts to keep him out of the race as undemocratic, calling Washington "corporate-occupied territory" and his campaign a challenge to "this two-party duopoly."

"Money is flowing in [to Washington] like never before. It means that corporations are saying no to the necessities of the American people," Nader said. "Basically, it's a question of both parties flunking."

Analysts expect the November election to be close again, and even if Nader doesn't gain the traction he had four years ago, he could still affect the race.

"Just structurally, the country is very divided down the middle, and it doesn't take much to have an impact," says independent pollster John Zogby.

But, he adds, "I don't anticipate Nader getting anywhere near what he got in 2000.... This is an Armageddon election. Each side is saying, 'You elect the other side, and it's the end of the world.' In that kind of a situation, it's very difficult to see Nader getting many votes."

The biggest wild card in the Nader candidacy is all the supporters of former candidate Howard Dean, many of whom hailed from the liberal wing of the Democratic Party and were attracted to the insurgent, outsider brand of politics that Nader also represents. In his speech last week announcing the end of his campaign, Mr. Dean made clear to supporters that they should not turn to a third-party campaign and that he would support whoever is the Democratic Party's nominee. But so far, the value of endorsements has been questionable in this campaign.

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