Iran, Iraq, and two Shiite visions

"He does not believe in 'Wilayat al Faqeeh' as the clergy in Iran do.... He repeatedly stressed that religion has to be separated from government," the letter said. "He said that he firmly believed that the clergy should not interfere with the running of people's lives, with government or with administration. He had forbidden his followers from putting their noses into the state's affairs. He said that clearly and categorically (several times to stress the point!)"

According to Sheikh Jalaleddine as-Saghir, Sistani's representative in Baghdad, the ayatollah recommends a multisectarian government for Iraq.

"He suggests that the government should represent all Iraqis," he says. "The Iraqi people should be the marja of the Iraqi government."

As for the future constitution, Sistani favors one that does not contradict sharia (Islamic) law but is not derived from it, Sheikh as-Saghir says.

Yet Sistani does not speak for all Shiite clerics. The Wilayet al-Faqih system is embraced in Iraq by followers of Mohammed Baqr al-Sadr and Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, two prominent clerics who were killed in 1980 and 1999 respectively for defying Mr. Hussein's regime.

"Of course, there is much sympathy for the Wilayet al-Faqih among the Shiites because the two Sadr martyrs called for it and both died for their beliefs," says Sheikh Hamzi al-Tai, who heads the Kerbala office of Moqtada al-Sadr, a young extremist cleric and son of Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr.

Nonetheless, few believe that the Wilayet al-Faqih system has enduring appeal to Iraqi Shiites.

"Apart from Mohammed Baqr al-Sadr, no one in Najaf agreed with Khom- eini's Wilayet al-Faqih," says Jaber Habib, a professor of politics at Baghdad University. "There's no great challenge from Moqtada al-Sadr as most Iraqis follow Sistani. Moqtada has support only because of his father. He is not a marja and is not advanced in religious studies. He is a flash in the pan."

Other than ideological differences, the Sadrists also harbor suspicions of Sistani's Iranian background - he speaks Arabic with a thick Persian accent. Many senior clerics in Najaf are of Iranian descent, whereas the Sadrs are Arabs of Iraqi-Lebanese origin.

Distrust of Iranian marja appears to have been behind the killing on April 10 last year of Ayatollah Abdul Majid al-Khoei, son of a noted Iranian scholar who returned to Iraq from exile in England and was stabbed to death in the Imam Ali shrine in Najaf. Followers of Moqtada Sadr have been blamed for the murder, and there are fears that Sistani could be next.

"As a Muslim, Sistani has a right to ask for the rights of Muslims. But he does not have a right to interfere in the affairs of Iraq," says Sheikh Tai. "We won't cause problems, God willing, but we won't allow anyone to interfere in Iraqi matters because this is a subject for Iraqis."

Still, while the resurgence of Najaf may have some impact on Iran, many analysts believe that it will not undermine the ruling clerics' grip on the country.

"I don't think [Sistani] is a threat to Iran's religious institutions," says Mohammed Hadi Semati, a Tehran University political scientist currently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "I don't think there will be a rivalry between Qom and Najaf ... though in the long-term, there could be rival doctrines [about clerical rule]."

Instead, any influence exerted by Iraq over Iran is more likely to stem from the successful introduction of a stable and democratic system of rule in Baghdad rather than from differences in Shiite theology.

"It's difficult to change the regime [in Iran]," says Professor Habib. "The Iranians stick to Islam more than Iraqis. The Iranian clerics have more influence over the people than the clerics in Iraq. But if the situation in Iraq develops and we succeed in democracy and prosperity, it will have a great influence on Iran. Iraq influences Iran, not the other way around."

• Scott Peterson contributed to this report from Tehran.

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