Kerry rivals now down to one

As Sen. John Edwards embarks on a long-shot, two-week bid to derail front-running Sen. John Kerry, his chances of success may be directly linked to his ability to seize what has so far proved the most compelling - and volatile - mantle of the campaign: electability.

In a contest in which momentum has shifted sharply from Senator Kerry to former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and back again to Kerry, no asset has proved more valuable than a candidate's ability to persuade voters that he would have the best shot in a matchup with President Bush.

In recent weeks, Kerry's 15 primary victories have given the Massachusetts senator enough of a winner's aura that he may well prove unstoppable.

But if Edwards can make the case for his ability to appeal to independents - and to match Mr. Bush's likability with his own optimistic persona - he may yet be able to puncture some of Kerry's momentum.

Already, the definition of electability has shifted repeatedly in the campaign, with voters seizing first on Dean's combativeness and fundraising prowess, and then on Kerry's military experience and proven ability to pull out victories.

Now, "[Edwards] is trying to change the electability argument," says Jenny Backus, a Democratic strategist. While Kerry will likely hammer home a message of "domination" in coming days - rolling out a flood of endorsements to create a sense of inevitability - Edwards will counter that with a message of "inclusion," arguing that he, not Kerry, has the ability to win over swing voters in the fall. "It's a tough road to hoe," Ms. Backus says. "But it's a smart thing for him to try."

Edwards may also benefit from the new structural dynamics of the race: Dr. Dean's withdrawal from the race Wednesday, after a disappointing third-place finish in Wisconsin, has essentially set up a two-man battle. Dean's absence could help Edwards on a variety of fronts. It will likely free up more media attention for the North Carolina senator - a crucial component of the race going forward, as paid advertising becomes prohibitively expensive in many Super Tuesday states.

Edwards could also be the logical inheritor of many Dean supporters, particularly if he can position himself as the "outsider" in the race.

More intriguing is the question of who - if anyone - might tap Dean's fundraising network, both the legions of small donors who have given over the Internet and the wealthier, Hollywood-type backers.

A final factor could be what happens to the remains of Dean's institutional support. His labor backing may already be headed for Kerry, who is expected to receive the endorsement of the AFL-CIO. But his congressional backers are still up for grabs. Significantly, many of Dean's supporters in Congress hail from California and New York - the two biggest Super Tuesday states - making their endorsements potentially key prizes.

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