Will Afghan turmoil postpone elections?
Continuing violence has US reconsidering its military tactics and the goal of holding elections by June.
Continued violence in Afghanistan has the US reconsidering its military tactics and rethinking the goal of holding elections by June.
The New York Times reports Wednesday that
the US plans to change tactics in its hunt for Al Qaeda. Lt. Gen. David Barno said American units are employing "more classic counter-insurgency" tactics, splitting into small teams that are living in villages to forge closer ties with village elders. In the past, US forces would carry out focused raids before returning to distant bases. Mr. Barno told the
Times the strategy is already paying off: Afghan civilians have reported more insurgent weapons caches in the last month than the previous half-year.
The
Times says the new strategy will complement efforts to disburse NATO reconstruction teams beyond Kabul to help local authorities with security and rebuilding. By summer, 16 of these teams, each consisting of 60 to 100 members tailored to a region's specific needs will be in place. Approximately 13,000 American and other allied troops are operating in Afghanistan alongside a 5,500 member NATO peacekeeping force in and around Kabul.
The shift in tactics follows increasing attacks on both military and civilian targets. Suspected Taliban rebels killed four mine clearance workers in an ambush in western Afghanistan over the weekend. And a soldier and shopkeeper were killed and six others injured when a bomb exploded Friday in a building housing a military unit in southern Afghanistan. The explosion in All Shaire district of Khost province came just two days after the province's deputy intelligence director was shot dead in broad daylight while traveling to work. And Tuesday, fighters loyal to two senior government officials exchanged gunfire in a bazaar in southern Kandahar province.
The Financial Times noted these attacks "
capped a series" of incidents that "could signal the start of a spring offensive in the southern region where the Taliban is active. Afghan fighters traditionally lie low during the winter and regroup as the snow melts."
Not all the security news out of Afghanistan is negative, US commanders say.
US troops reported success Monday with the capture of more than 40 people - including two "mid level" Taliban leaders - believed to be involved in recent violence in the central Afghan Uruzgan province. The group was detained Sunday during a raid involving dozens of US troops.
Barno also praised Pakistan for a dramatic improvement in cross-border cooperation, the
BBC
reported. The Pakistani military has stepped up efforts to search for Al Qaeda and Taliban remnants over the last six to eight weeks. "We're moving in the direction of co-operative operations on both sides of the border - a hammer-and-anvil approach, if you will," he told Pentagon reporters in a satellite hook-up from Afghanistan.
The New York Times reported Pakistan is
using a harsh century-old British method, "Pakistani forces have handed local tribal leaders a list of villages suspected of sheltering members of Al Qaeda. If the tribe refuses to hand over the suspects, the Pakistani Army threatens to punish the group as a whole, withdrawing funds or demolishing houses."
The Associated Press reports that Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah warned Tuesday that security
must improve in lawless regions of the south and east before presidential and parliamentary elections can proceed in June as planned. During a visit Tuesday, Pentagon Budget Chief Dov Zakheim conceded that up to 1,500 soldiers have deserted the 5,700 member Afghan Army over pay and conditions. But Mr. Zakheim said there were still more recruits than capacity to train them.
The violence has Bush administration officials rethinking whether the June elections may have to be postponed, the
Times reported earlier this week. With security conditions uncertain in a third of the country, only 8 percent of eligible Afghan voters have registered to vote - and only two percent of eligible women. The UN has set as the goal for a viable election registering 70 percent of the country's 10.5 million eligible voters. Almost all of the estimated 600,000 to 900,000 voters registered thus far live in Kabul and seven other major cities, the
AP reports.
US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad backtracked Monday, saying June remained the target for both presidential and parliamentary elections. "There is a way for this to happen," he told
The New York Times from Kabul. "I am optimistic that
this will be the case. I have argued that there are ways to compensate for the slow start."
But in an internal report sent recently to the United Nations, the
Financial Times reported "
NATO expressed concern." that the registration of voters was not sufficiently advanced.
A high level European Union delegation also expressed doubts about the timing of the election on Tuesday during meetings with Afghan officials in Kabul. The EU mission is led by Irish Foreign Minister Brian Cowen and the bloc's external relations commissioner, Chris Patten. But Mr. Patten said Wednesday that June elections are likely despite serious concerns about security issues. When asked whether the elections would be pushed back because of instability and a slow rate of voter registration, Patten said: "I don't think it (a delay) looks likely."
The new Afghan constitution does allow for a delay, specifying only that a decision on elections must be made by June. But top Afghan officials, including President Hamid Karzai, who is a heavy favorite to win the presidential race, want elections to be held on schedule.
The New York Times reported Mr. Karzai is said to be haunted by the memory that civil war erupted in the early 1990's when Burhanuddin Rabbani, a onetime anti-Russia guerrilla leader, refused to step down as president.
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