Europe's small states fear domination by 'big three'

It began mundanely enough. German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder invited French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair to discuss social security reform and other issues of common concern at a meeting in Berlin, set for Feb. 18.

But with the European Union set to admit 10 new members in just three months - despite being deadlocked over a new constitution to govern the unwieldy 25-nation group - some smaller European countries are beginning to wonder whether the three-way meeting is so innocent. Could it be, they wonder, that their powerful neighbors might be planning to hijack the EU in the name of efficiency?

Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini was the first to sound the alarm publicly, warning recently that "there cannot be a directorate, a divisive nucleus which would threaten European unity." Eyebrows have been raised in other medium-size countries, too, from Poland to Spain.

It is early days yet, however, say some commentators. "I don't think there is a blueprint for a directorate orchestrating things behind the scenes," says John Palmer, head of the European Policy Centre, a think tank in Brussels. "This is an exploratory meeting. But if there is no constitution and the EU is paralyzed by a lack of institutional capability, the vacuum would be filled by arrangements such as the triumvirate."

Irish Prime Minster Bertie Ahern, who currently presides over the EU, is seeking to salvage the constitution which heads of state failed to agree to last December, in the hope of reviving it this year.

Meanwhile, the frustrations of making policy and acting on it when so many voices demand to be heard have already driven the big three to act on their own. Britain, France, and Germany succeeded in persuading Iran to accept surprise inspections of its nuclear facilities by the International Atomic Energy Agency, after a diplomatic drive last year that excluded other EU members.

The draft European constitution would create a European foreign minister, and an embryonic European diplomatic corps, which would make such national end runs around EU institutions less likely.

German officials insist that the Feb. 18 meeting holds no hidden threat. "It is not being held against anyone," a spokesman for Mr. Schröder says. "But the three countries have an interest in moving Europe forward in the interests of Europe as a whole." The spokesman, insisting on anonymity, adds: "We don't want a fast-track Europe. But that could be an effect of the lack of a constitution."

Some outside the "big three" say they don't believe it. "Most people in the Polish government think the talk of a fast track is just bluff, a tool to blackmail Poland and force it to make concessions" in the wrangle over national voting strengths under the constitution, says Janusz Reiter, head of the Center for International Relations in Warsaw.

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