Bush hits road, touting economy

For the White House, the sequel would be a dreaded one: "It's the Economy, Stupid, Part II."

The original Republican horror story ultimately sank George H.W. Bush's bid for reelection. Now, President George W. Bush is determined to avoid a potential replay.

Unlike his father, who appeared not to care about the jobless, the son is stumping around the Midwest touting an improving economy. For proof he is waving a new report from his own Council of Economic Advisers, predicting 2.6 million new jobs this year.

But many economists doubt that rosy figure, expecting less than half that number of jobs to be created between now and the election. As a result, voters will continue to be concerned about the availability of jobs, the tough environment for getting a raise, and economic trends that are hard to stop - like the outsourcing of jobs to such places as China and India. Polls now show the economy is an overwhelming concern of citizens.

"It's absolutely critical. This is starting to remind me more and more of Daddy Bush," says Larry Sabato, a political analyst at the University of Virginia. In 1992 "all of the experts and all of the commissions said the economy would get better in plenty of time for the election, but it didn't."

The White House is trying to paint a different picture from 1992. Monday, it released the annual Economic Report of the President. "As 2004 begins, America's economy is strong and getting stronger," said Mr. Bush. "We are moving in the right direction but have more to do."

Indeed, economists point to relatively high consumer confidence ratings, which is a reflection of the job market. Last week, the government reported a gain of 112,000 jobs in January and a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.6 percent. "About 68 percent of [Americans] are employed, and that's a pretty respectable number," says Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo Banks in Minneapolis. "But if you look at the net change in jobs since Bush became president, he has lost jobs, and that has not happened since the Great Depression under Herbert Hoover."

Although the White House is projecting much larger job gains ahead, some economists expect he'll be fortunate to see 1 million new jobs by November. "If it's less than 500,000, he will have some difficulty in his reelection bid," predicts Mark Zandi of Economy.com. "At the end of the day, people know if they are working or not and how much of a pay increase they got."

Those economic worries are showing up on Main Street. One in 5 voters live in a household where someone is afraid of losing their job in the next 12 months, according to the most recent Zogby poll.

And it's not just blue-collar workers who are worried about pink slips. Twenty-five percent of people earning $75,000 or more are also worried about ending up on the unemployment line. Those numbers haven't wavered since August.

In 1999, it was only 11 percent. "This is well beyond the bottom strata, way beyond blue collar," says John Zogby. "That's what makes this slowdown and so-called jobless recovery different.

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