Biggest question for Tuesday: Who drops out?

McAuliffe's tough rhetoric comes at a time when Bush is back on his heels over the question of Iraq's so-far-nonexistent weapons of mass destruction and over the administration's 2005 budget plan released Monday, projecting a $521 billion deficit. [Editor's note: The original version misstated the size of the projected 2005 budget deficit.]

With the Feb. 3 contests spread around the country, voter reactions shed some light on how Kerry might be perceived on the national stage in November. Peter Padilla, a military veteran from Tempe, Ariz., plans on voting for Kerry Tuesday, because he's a veteran and because as a senator he has been responsive to the needs of veterans.

That Kerry has taken lobbyist money won't keep Mr. Padilla from casting his ballot for him. "He's not doing anything that anybody else isn't doing. That's just part of Washington," says Padilla, a sociologist at Arizona State University.

The "liberal" tag worries him more. Liberal to him means somebody who might be interested in weakening the Second Amendment: "I don't hear gun control, I hear gun elimination."

Susan Kricun of Phoenix, a registered Democrat, says she'll vote in the primary only if she feels she knows the candidates well enough. "I've heard John Kerry's name a lot, that's about it," she says, adding that the "liberal" label wouldn't prevent her from voting for Kerry.

"I considered myself to be liberal," she says. "It just tells me that he's a little more open-minded, rather than being right or left wing."

The Feb. 3 voting also marks the first primary in a Southern state, South Carolina. This fall, there will be discussion over whether a Democrat can win the presidency without winning a Southern state.

Even though it's technically doable, it would be difficult. So while Kerry has gotten great mileage so far for his perceived "electability," at least compared with Dean, he would still face a steep climb against Bush in the South.

"Clearly there are real barriers for succeeding in the South in the fall," says Jay Barth, chairman of the political science department at Hendrix University in Conway, Ark. "It's a combination of Kerry's geographical origins, and it's also a personal style that is not particularly warm and fuzzy. Certainly, his military background could be packaged into a positive in the region."

Dr. Barth says that Bush has honed a personal style that plays well in the South. In contrast, Southerners will see Kerry's voting record as a Northeastern liberal as a problem. Kerry could find a way to make a few states competitive focusing on particular issues that play well in certain states, such as the environment in Florida or choosing a running mate from the South.

"Kerry is a real problem in the South," says Barth. "He has shown some real signs of energy as a candidate, but it's hard to see him as successful in the South on a wide scale."

• D.J. Burrough in Arizona and Suzi Parker in Arkansas contributed to this report.

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